The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reduced its regional growth forecast to 2.2% for 2026, amid an international scenario marked by geopolitical tensions, restrictive financial conditions and a generalized slowdown in most countries in the region.
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) corrected downwards this Monday its growth forecast for regional gross domestic product (GDP) for 2026, going from 2.3% projected in December to 2.2%, in an international context marked by geopolitical conflicts.
According to the United Nations agency, the lower economic dynamism projected for this year “is observed across the board,” with a slowdown in growth in 24 of the 33 countries in the region, while only seven would show an acceleration.
If this projection is realized, which reflects an external environment characterized by international tensions, restrictive financial conditions and the resurgence of inflationary pressures at a global level, “the region would complete four consecutive years with growth rates close to 2.3%, which shows a pattern of low growth capacity.”
Less regional dynamism
During the second half of 2025, ECLAC explained, “a slowdown in economic activity had already been observed, especially in the main economies of the region, a trend that has continued until 2026.”
For this year, a lower dynamism in private consumption would impact growth, with investment that, although showing signs of recovery, continues to be “moderate” in most Latin American countries.
Along the same lines, employment would grow around 1.1% in 2026 at the regional level, after the 1.5% observed in 2025, and inflation would be at a median above 3%, unlike the 2.4% recorded last year.
Global uncertainty
During the first four months of 2026, ECLAC details, “the increase in geopolitical tensions and the war in the Middle East have increased global uncertainty and volatility in the financial and raw materials markets.”
The increase in production and transportation costs, derived from the sharp increases in the price of oil – which was 74% above the average value for December 2025 – adds to the increase in food prices globally and the slowdown in some of the region’s main trading partners, such as the Euro Zone, China and India.
By 2026, the World Trade Organization (WTO) projects a growth in the volume of global trade in goods and services of 2.7%, after having grown 4.7% during 2025.
Regional performance
In total, nine countries would grow 4% or more; eight countries would grow between 3% and less than 4%; 13 would expand below that level and three would register contractions.
South America would grow 2.4% in 2026, below the 2.9% registered in 2025.
For its part, in Central America growth would moderate and would reach 2.2% in 2026, compared to 2.3% last year; This projection is explained by the contractions expected in Cuba and Haiti.
In the English- or Dutch-speaking Caribbean, the expected growth for 2026 is 1.2%, without Guyana, a country that has high growth in the midst of its oil “boom.”