Joachim Klement, German economist and mathematician from Panmure Liberum, claims to have guessed the champions of the 2014 (Germany), 2018 (France) and 2022 (Argentina) World Cups with his own econometric model. Now, in a forecast published in April, he foresees a final between the Netherlands and Portugal, with the Dutch triumphing.
Klement created the model in 2014 with the intention of demonstrating that predicting a World Cup is practically impossible. According to his own words in an interview with Der Spiegelquoted by the EFE agency, “the first time I was horrified when Germany became champion in Brazil.”
In the official Panmure Liberum document, Klement explains that the system combines GDP per capita, population size, position in the FIFA ranking, the cultural importance of football, average temperature and home field advantage, in addition to 45% chance.
“The ideal temperature for football seems to be 14°C or the annual average found in much of southern Europe and South America,” he points out.
The author himself insists that the model only explains 55% of the success; the rest depends on random factors. “It’s something that has nothing rational about it, it’s like playing the lottery. I always say that if someone bets based on my forecast… it’s someone who has no choice,” he warns.
Portugal’s path to the final
According to the simulation detailed in its report, Portugal, led by Cristiano Ronaldo, would finish in first place in its group and advance by eliminating Ivory Coast in the round of 32, Switzerland in the round of 16 and Argentina in the quarterfinals, after extra time.
In the semi-finals they would beat England and reach the final against the Netherlands.
Klement is critical of Ronaldo’s role and maintains that Portugal would perform better “if coach Roberto Martínez does not make the mistake of fielding Cristiano Ronaldo (ideally, he does not even call him up)”, leaving the role to Bruno Fernandes, João Neves, Gonçalo Ramos and Bernardo Silva.
The voices of the Portuguese dressing room
Despite the model’s reservations, Ronaldo’s teammates dream of winning the title with the forward in what could be their last World Cup.
Vitinha declared in May, in an interview with FIFA: “It is fantastic to be a teammate of Cristiano Ronaldo. He is one of the best players in history. I feel very proud to share a dressing room with him… I hope we can win the World Cup with him and also for him.”
Bruno Fernandes told the BBC: “To wrap this last World Cup with Cristiano winning it would be something incredible. I really hope we can achieve it, not only for Portugal, but for everything Cristiano has given to football and the world.”
The big surprises of the forecast
Klement highlights three unexpected results. Among them, Japan would stage one of the biggest surprises of the tournament by eliminating Brazil in the round of 32. “Japan is on a roll. They defeated Germany in the last World Cup, Brazil 3-2 in a friendly in October 2025 and have defeated England and Scotland in recent weeks,” he explains.
Other early eliminations projected by the model include Ecuador against Senegal, Colombia against Croatia and Uruguay against Argentina. According to the simulation, the semi-finals would be completely European: the Netherlands would defeat Spain and Portugal would defeat England.
The 2026 World Cup will be held from June 11 to July 19 in the United States, Mexico and Canada. Klement, who assures that it all started “as a joke,” acknowledges: “The luck factor is enormous and anything can happen.”