Economic activity in Guatemala maintain a positive pace despite the international geopolitical context, and the trend observed in the prices of oil and its derivatives.
This week, the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) updated the figures of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (Imae), which stood at 4.5%, higher than the 3.9% registered in April 2024.
The indicator was lower than the 4.7% reported in March of this year and 4.6% in February, when international geopolitical tensions increased.
The report indicates that the result was driven by the growth observed in vehicle trade and repair activities; manufacturing industries; real estate activities; financial and insurance activities; and construction.
The Imae is an indicator that measures the behavior of real production and aims to track the growth rate of the economy month by month.
Economy shows resilience
In the recent mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the evaluation of Guatemala under Article IV, a periodic review of the economy, it was explained that the country continues to benefit from solid macroeconomic fundamentals. Thanks to strong private consumption and positive fiscal momentum, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.3% in 2025, above expectations.
This reflects a resilient economy in the face of difficulties and uncertainty.
The report indicates that inflation stood at 1.7% in December 2025, well below the central bank’s goal. The current account surplus increased to 4.7% of GDP and international reserves reached US$32.7 billion. Both indicators reflect record levels of family remittances.
Furthermore, in a context of uncertainty about raw material prices, the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) has maintained since February 2026 the monetary policy rate at 3.5%.
The fiscal deficit increased to 1.9% of GDP in 2025, although it remained below the budgeted 3.8%, mainly due to moderate execution of capital spending. Guatemala continues to enjoy favorable access to financial markets and maintains a central government debt equivalent to 27% of GDP.
Remittances and investment will sustain the economy
The document from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlights that the shock in oil prices is modifying a panorama that had begun as a very favorable year.
“The 4.4% growth of economic activity in the first quarter pointed to solid prospects by 2026. However, the mission projects that the effects of the war in the Middle East—in a context of great uncertainty about the evolution of oil prices—will moderate growth to 3.75% this year,” he explains.
Beyond 2026, growth is expected to rebound as the effects of the oil shock dissipate and increased public investment and reforms begin to bear fruit.
Inflation expectations support confidence that inflation will remain, at the end of 2026—unless severe shocks occur—within the target range of 4%, plus/minus 1%, established by the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat).
“The fiscal deficit is expected to be below the 3.6% of GDP budgeted for 2026 and, according to the income projections of the IMF technical staff, to stabilize around 2.5% of GDP in the medium term. For its part, the current account surplus will decrease as the growth of remittances moderates and private investment strengthens,” says the report published on Monday, June 8.