As in the electoral process of 2023, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) will have to reform its regulations in the absence of changes to the electoral law and political parties (LEPP) and, at the discretion of analysts, must define what is an early campaign and avoid political censorship.
For next June 9, the acting president of the TSE, Blanca Alfaro, reported that there will be a new meeting with representatives of political parties to refine details of the electoral event of 2027. In that new meeting they hope to address the proposals for reforms to the regulations of the electoral norm.
The Congress gathered law initiatives that sought to change the LEPP, including the proposal sent by the Electoral Update and Modernization Commission (CAME), which was created after the 2023 elections, but approveing changes to be implemented in the following votes is an unlikely scenario, the sources point out.
“They cannot limit participation, but all electoral logistics will vary with so much candidate, with so much party and the traditional system will not bear that onslaught,” said Francisco Quezada, of the National Economic Research Center (one hundred).
Even, although deputies choose to reform the electoral law, Quezada said, the current opinion, far from benefiting, could more complicate the electoral process, since it weakens the control and favors political groups, he said.
Also, Alejandro Quinteros, an independent political analyst, thinks in the same way and sees little concern in the deputies to change the current law. “There are several issues to be addressed because the law with the 2016 reforms left many gray lines,” he recalled.
Both consider that, if the options are reduced to change the regulations again, they must be changes that better define the electoral rules, putting special emphasis on how, despite having a law since 2016, it is not defined what is an early campaign and what not.
Priority reform
For Quezada, the LEPP that was reformed nine years ago has left politicians more experienced over those who are jumping on the electoral stage, since they cannot be made known or transmitted ideas due to fear of electoral sanctions that could have an impact, in the worst case, to avoid their participation for voting.
“It is regulated, but the issue of the early campaign is wrong because all new parties need to position themselves and have the disadvantage against positioned candidates,” he said.
But this void, to its consideration, left a series of gaps and criteria that could be considered discretionary when evaluating possible early campaign scenarios.
“The Supreme Electoral Court has as challenges all the failures of the last electoral process. Unfortunately they are disintegrated. They will have to work with regulations, but the ideal was with reforms to the law, which is likely not to pass from Congress,” he said.
For Quinteros, it is essential that the magistrates manage to define this matter before the change of authorities, so that the future magistracy already has the necessary supplies to avoid the errors of the previous process.
“With the regulation, an interpretive criteria manual could be generated so that each case that arrives, if there is already jurisprudence, it is in the same way. This would give certainty to the processes,” he said.
Necessary changes
Two politicians who have participated as presidential candidates claimed to agree that it is necessary to define in a clear way, what is early campaign and what is not.
Sandra Torres, former presidential ex -candidate and general secretary of the National Unit of Hope (UNE), said that it is necessary to evaluate the behaviors of some politicians and the sanctions imposed by the electoral authority.
“There is also the issue of the imposition of a fine regarding the criteria that the TSE uses to impose them, as well as some candidates who have no party and promote their image in podcast and networks,” he said.
For politics, current regulations have shortcomings that deserve to be evaluated. “The regulation has many gaps and there are many issues to fix, such as the difference between proselytism and propaganda,” he added.
Roberto Arzú also, who participated for the Presidency in 2019, and that was not registered by apparent early campaign in 2023, supports that the possible changes to the electoral regulations clearly define what the early campaign is.
“It is an atrocity and it is unconstitutional to prohibit any Guatemalan citizen for their free expression of thought. If something enriches an electoral process is the debate, the proposals, the criticisms. There is now such a ridiculous regulation that prohibits the promotion of image and only in three months of the campaign, how are the new ones going to be presented?” He claimed.
For Arzú, it is necessary that the TSE authorities prioritize the best reforms to their regulations to avoid violations of the right to choose and be elected.
“The message to the Supreme Electoral Court is that if you want to clean a little for what they did in the past elections disqualifying candidates and prohibiting millions from choosing and being elected, they now have an opportunity to clean their face doing the right thing,” he added.
Analysts also consider vital that, as well as the early campaign, mechanisms for reforms to the different electoral joints and improve in the implementation of computer systems that help the projection of preliminary results are considered.