The United States will impose tariffs on imports of agricultural products from next April 2, as announced by the president, Donald Trump, in his social networks.
Meanwhile, in Guatemala the producing and export sector qualifies it as bad news that creates uncertainty taking into account that agricultural exports to the United States represent 17% of the total exports of the country, about US $ 2 thousand 404 million, according to data from the Guatemalan Association of Exporters (AGEXPORT).
Trump’s announcement was made on Monday, March 3, indicating that it plans to implement from April 2 tariffs on agricultural products that are imported to their country.
“To the great farmers of the United States: prepare to start producing a large number of agricultural products that will be sold within the United States,” Trump said in his social truth network.
The president added, without giving details, that “the tariffs will be applied to external products on April 2”.
These join other segments of goods or products that have already been announced or applied tariffs such as steel and aluminum, which will be expected to enter into force on March 12. In addition to 25% of tariffs to Canada and Mexico, which had already postponed once and that they would tentatively charge validity on March 4.
In addition to tariffs to China. This Tuesday, March 4, another 10% tariff enters into imports from that country, which would add 10% already applied since February 4, so the tariff load for that country would rise to 20%.
What effect could it have in Guatemala?
The agricultural sector is one of the country’s largest exporters, and Amador Carballido, general director of AGEXPORT plays several numbers.
In 2024, Guatemala exported in total goods for US $ 14,588 million and of these US $ 5,069 million are agricultural products, which represents 35% of the total.
And, of that, US $ 2 thousand 404 million agricultural products are allocated to the United States, and represents 17% of the total exported.
“The news is still general, we do not know if it applies to all countries and whether or not it is generalized to all products,” added Carballido.
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“It is bad news, I think it is negative, that it generates uncertainty” because it cannot be said that it will not put it because we have a FTA or because we are commercial partners, but we do not know what is going to decide, he added.
He said that the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) of Central America is with the United States, but that does not mean that they have not violated that tool previously. There is also NAFTA among the countries of North America, but Trump is imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, he mentioned as an example.
According to Amador, it is necessary to take into account that Guatemala sends agricultural products that do not occur in the United States, such as coffee, banana, sugar, as well as some vegetables and fruits that are plantations that require years to grow and start producing.
But there are also others that occur there, so, to apply tariffs, apart from the freight that is already paid, it would be disadvantaged, competitiveness would be lost to what produced in the United States. These aspects increase the price cost, and in the agricultural sector by the margins it is delicate, he added.
Guatemala is large in export of bananas to the United States, but if there are figures of other products are not so large, compared to the total market of that country and its imports.
Amador mentions that three scenarios could occur:
- Consider that if the norm is generalized that country can fall into a shortage problem of wide number of products that by weather or other conditions do not occur in that country, and will tend to scarce and increase prices, generating inflation.
- The second is that tariffs are applied to all imported products they do in the United States.
- And the third is to place tariff only to what does not occur in that country.
Both Carballido, and Enrique Laces, former Minister of Economy, agree that with the FTA the agricultural relief was almost ended.
Data from the Ministry of Economy report that, as of January 1, 2025, the level of disgraceful products within NAFTA with the United States is 99.9 %
LACS says that talking about tariffs for agricultural products can be delicate for Guatemala, since the provisions announced, without having detail, are already going to another level of commercial war. In those are basic products such as rice, corn, soybeans, sorghum and the United States buys many countries.
He believes that in the case of Guatemala it could affect him in some fruits, vegetables, legumes, and vegetables, but it should be taken into account that they are seasonal and the United States does not produce them in certain seasons, so they are sent from Guatemala and other countries.
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And there are other crops that the United States does not possess, but its production does not occur overnight, because they have longer cycles and can start producing 4 years later, and they will have to import them more expensive or stop consuming them.
Camagro considers that measure is not aimed at Guatemala
However, Carla Caballeros, Executive Director of the Agro Chamber (Camagro), considers that it is an action that is not addressed to Guatemala, taking into account several elements detailing:
- The trade of agricultural products between the two countries has been favorable for the United States, and agricultural trade is complementary.
- Access for agricultural products between the two countries, are part of the FTA where tariff conditions were negotiated, which in general terms could be said are reciprocal.
- And the third is part of and align with what is stipulated in the reciprocal trade memorandum signed by the Trump administration, the executive added.
The executive said it is important to remember that there is a positive trade balance in favor of the United States. That country exports to Guatemala around US $ 10,000 100 million. While it imports from our country goods for around US $ 5,230 million. That is, the commercial superavit is positive for the United States US $ 4,870 million.
They will continue to send bananas
On the other hand, Julio Mérida, executive director of the Association of Independent Banano Producers of Guatemala (APIB) said they found out the announcement launched by Trump, and although they trust that said Guatemalan fruit will continue to be exported to the US market within the framework of the Drcafta Free Trade Agreement, you must be attentive to any change that happens.
He believes that the tariffs that the new administration in Washington is imposing will be more directed towards other markets of origin and another kind of agricultural products.
Regarding volumes, of the130 million boxes of 40 pounds each, which every year exports Guatemala to the world, between 90 and 94% are allocated to the United States, that is, around 120 million boxes.
That represents around 2.4 million tons of banana per year.
Guatemala agricultural exports to the United States
According to Banguat data, provided by AGEXPORT, agricultural products exported to the United States in 2024 reached US $ 2 thousand 404 million, and the most sent, according to departure are:
- Fresh or dry bananas (bananas), US $ 833.5 million
- Coffee without toast or decaffeinar, US $ 381.5 million
- Fresh melons, US $ 192.1 million
- Fresh or dry bananas (bananas), US $ 166.2 million
- Jewish, beans and other US $ 83.1 million
- Vegetables, US $ 64.8 million
- Without cooking edible fruits, US $ 55.7 million
- Fresh watermelons, US $ 54.3 million
- Peas, peas and others, US $ 40.0 million
- Coliflores and broccoli, fresh or frozen, US $ 28.7 million
There are about 150 tariff codes that have a reach of more than 500 products.
*With information from AFP, EFE and Urias Gamarro