Guatemala has entered a season in which temperatures will increase, but heat will not be as extreme as in 2024 due to the effects of the girl’s weather phenomenon, according to the National Institute of Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (Insivumeh).
César George, an insivumeh meteorologist, indicated that the forecasts were made based on studies carried out during 2024.
“These forecasts base them on the temperature anomalies presented by the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico last year. Temperatures are not so high and have begun to decrease,” he explained.
Despite this prognosis, the meteorologist says that it is normal that in the months of March and April there are temperatures between 40 and 42 degrees, mainly in Petén and East of the country. The expert emphasizes that the previous year temperatures of up to 44 degrees were recorded in some regions, and the strongest heat wave was presented in May.
“We would expect that the first region where it starts to rain is the mouth Costa and Southwest, where we foresee that some rains can be presented from April 10 to 20,” he said.
Rains will decrease
The Private Institute of Climate Change warns that the temperature in the world is increased every year, and in Guatemala the rains will decrease by 30 percent in the coming years.
They explained that this will cause more droughts and, consequently, forest fires, drinking water shortage and decrease in the level of wells due to the reduction of natural flows such as rivers and lakes.
Experts reiterate that extreme heat with rain intervals increases diseases such as dengue, Zika and Chikungunya, due to the proliferation of virus carriers insects.
Although temperatures will not be extreme, scientists, doctors and farmers warn that the hot environment reduces the production of basic grains and the smoke of forest fires generates poor air quality that affects people with respiratory diseases. There is also an increase in allergies, asthma and lung diseases due to the presence of smoke and dust.
Those who work outdoors, such as construction workers, vendors and farmers may suffer dehydration and heat blows.
“The consequences increase every year, but this year we have good news, because at least we will not have such critical temperatures as last year,” said Alex Guerra, director of the Private Institute of Climate Change.
He added: “The boy will bring us drought and very hot and so we came since June 2023, but at the end of 2024 the girl’s phenomenon entered, there will be heat but not to the same levels last year.”
Guerra emphasizes that despite the effects of the girl, there are departments more vulnerable to drought in the dry corridor in Chiquimula.
“Last year there were even fires in forests where they did not occur, as in the Quetzal Biotope, in Semuc Champey, in the cloud forest of the volcano of water. The next six months will be under the influence of the girl’s phenomenon and then enter neutral,” he explained.
For the expert, Guatemala must work on plans that mitigate the sequelae of high temperatures.
“Studies in Guatemala have determined that in the coming years the rain will fall by 10 percent and in a more pessimistic scenario it could drop up to 30 percent. That of course translates to more droughts, damages in agriculture, less water in the lagoons,” he said.