Trump’s decision to suspend the shipment of all military aid to Ukraine left Ukrainians and Europeans thinking on Tuesday how to fend for themselves.
The decision – which potentially affects at least US $ 9 billion in weapons, ammunition and air defense systems in processing and orders, according to new estimates – made a fear that has tormented Ukraine since the re -election of President Trump.
This is what you have to know.
Why the United States suspends help?
The United States has provided about US $ 67 billion in Armament and Military Equipment to Ukraine since the war began in 2022, almost half of the total of US $ 136 billion that allies have contributed. But Trump’s approach to Russia after his inauguration in January aggravated the fears among the allies that he stopped US help, which promoted the president of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelenski, to seek greater European support.
After an explosive confrontation in the Oval Office last week, during which Trump rebuked Zelenski for not thanking the US support enough, the White House decided to suspend the shipments of weapons, according to senior government and military officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Few details have been announced on the measure, which seems destined to force Zelenski to accept a high fire in the terms Trump dictates or face greater losses on the battlefield.
The officials said that the directive would be in force until Trump determined that Ukraine had demonstrated a good faith with the peace negotiations with Russia, which launched a large -scale invasion in February 2022. It was not clear immediately what that would look like that or how long the suspension would last. For now, it will depend on kyiv and its European allies try that the weapons of Ukraine remain active.
Has this happened before?
Trump’s measure has few direct precedents in the recent history of the United States.
The United States has interrupted the transfer of specific weapons systems to allies and partners, such as when President Joseph R. Biden Jr. suspended the deliveries of bombs of 907 kilos to Israel for its disproportionate impact on Gaza civilians. But a total suspension is rare, and is essentially an ultimatum.
It is not the first time that Trump blocks the aid to Ukraine. During his first term, he pressed Zelenski to help discredit Biden when he was the main democratic candidate for the presidency, retaining military aid to Ukraine. He only released her after the pressure of her republican advisors and senators. The revelations about these actions led to Trump’s first dismissal process.
What is the impact?
Some high Ukrainian positions say that the army will be in a desperate situation in approximately half a year if US support does not resume.
“Definitely, Ukraine has a security margin of about six months, even without the systematic help of the United States. But it will be much more difficult, of course, ”said a member of Parliament on Tuesday, Fedir Venislavskyi, to the RBC-Ukraine news agency.
According to a new analysis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies of Washington, the United States was going to deliver this year to Ukraine about US $ 11,000 hundred million in weapons and equipment, funds that had already been spent on defense and weapons contracts of the pentagon arsenals that were still pending shipping. An former American defense official said the figure probably approximated US $ 9 billion.
How many weapons does Ukraine have now?
The always changing number of weapons of the allies that arrive in Ukraine and leave to the battlefields hinders the estimation of arsenal levels. Experts say that the amount that remains, or that it can quickly recover, depends largely on the type of weapon.
Artillery, for example, was until last year an indicator of the success of Ukraine on the battlefield.
Ukraine is currently shooting about five thousand artillery projectiles per day, little less than its estimated average for much of the war, said Jack Watling, an expert from the Royal United Services Institute, an analytical group affiliated with the British army. Ukraine has said that he should be able to produce enough artillery by itself at the end of this year, and other European nations should help maintain balance.
Ukraine is also building its own armored vehicles and anti -tank weapons, having burned more than four thousand tanks, personnel transport vehicles and other combat trucks since 2022. And the vast majority of drones, which have surpassed other weapons in lethality in the front, are manufactured in Ukraine.
But the necessary aerial defenses to protect cities, military positions and critical infrastructure of Ukraine of Russian missiles and bombs – among the American weapons systems that Zelenski has considered in the past “crucial” for the survival of his country – remain scarce. This is partly due to the fact that Ukraine uses missile missiles to intercept the air attacks almost as fast as they are thrown, especially those that can stop the ballistic missiles and the Russian planning pumps, which are difficult and expensive to block.
To increase uncertainty, during much of February, the Trump government stopped US exports of double -use sensitive products that can be used in arms, which caused the alarm among the executives of the European Defense industry due to the possibility that they could not produce interceptor missiles and other ammunition.
¿Can other allies fill the void?
The promises of continued support and help to Ukraine by leaders from all over Europe and Canada have been intensified since Trump’s election.
So far this year, the United Kingdom, Germany, Lithuania and Sweden have promised aerial defense missiles. Canada is sending more combat vehicles and flight simulators to train combat pilots. France and the Netherlands have delivered more combat planes. And Norway and Finland are spending hundreds of millions of dollars each to buy weapons for Ukraine.
“Europe is willing to massively increase its defense expenditure, both to respond to the urgency in the short term of acting and supporting Ukraine, and to address the long -term need to assume more responsibility for our own European security,” said Tuesday in Brussels Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission.
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She announced a plan of US $ 841 billion to increase defense budgets throughout Europe and promote joint acquisitions between states to accelerate weapons manufacturing.
But those efforts have previously failed, with the countries divided between internal spending needs and defense contractors unable to produce large amounts of expensive weapons without initial capital.