The processes that mark the beginning of the first quarter of a century become the years after World War II and the current scenario, marked by the accelerated technological growth and the consequences of climate change throughout the planet. This explains his vision of these times the historian and doctor in Sociology Edeliberto Cifuentes, who takes up the phrase coined by the Uruguayan writer Mario Benedetti: “A pessimist is just a well -informed optimistic.”
How do we start the 21st century in the world?
In history, the processes are seen, which do not respond to the change of dates, but are processes that come from previous periods and their scope can go beyond the century. The social and historical times are multiple, and we are now in a time that has existence since World War II, in which different processes and facts have been profiled; For example, in the postwar period a world order was established under the hegemony of the USA. and the differentiation in that world order between the US and the Soviet Union. Subsequently, with the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989), which has been interpreted as the failure of real socialism, and in 1991, with the implosion of the Soviet Union, it is shown that the economy of those countries was already market; However, some come to say that history is over and it is only possible to continue from liberalism. But it has not been true, because within the very existence of the market economy, other strong economies begin to emerge, such as China, which is a state -directed market economy.
Later, in 2008, there is the first major financial crisis in the US, which starts from a real estate bubble. Meanwhile, China goes in another direction, making investments in infrastructure and technology. This crisis is key because it shows the rupture of the US economy and the strong emerging presence of the Chinese economy.
Do you think that technological advances are those that mark these years?
There are two important actors that appear clearly in these last 25 years: excessive technological development, but does not apply from a productive perspective; That is, it is not incorporated into the production processes in a generalized way, except in the case of China, which makes a strong technological investment in its industry. Technological developments do not apply in all economic sectors, and that creates terrible effects that are expressed in world inequality.
The second factor is climate change. There are expectations based on concrete research and studies that, for the second half of the 21st century, a third of the world will be desert. This year is the most recent case of fires in Los Angeles, and we also have high temperatures in the country.
What impacts have these two factors?
Worldwide there is an increase in poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition. There are indicators that show the lack of attention to the population and, in Guatemala, we constantly see publications regarding malnutrition. There is hunger and misery in much of the world, and the poor population in Guatemala is about 56%. It was said at one time, that we were the poorest country in Latin America. So, there is a worldwide tendency to deteriorate the human condition, including cognitive capacity for the development of critical thinking.
In Guatemala there is no social research and the contribution of technical research centers are limited, they are at the level of operation. Although there are 16 universities, they are mostly dedicated to “holder” not to professionalization.
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With these conditions, the gaps are deepened in the use and generation of technologies?
Technology production is private worldwide. This determines that it is only generalized if it is a business, because it is in the hands of the great global technological powers. In Guatemala there is a productive capacity, by its workforce, while lack of industrial investments and destined for all educational levels.
Do you perceive that there are changes to reverse that trend?
I am not entirely optimistic, and I perceive that there is a resurgence of violence, poverty and poor quality of public services. It is not that a government or a person changes the situation, because there is a power structure that benefits from corruption.
The long -term trends that come from the last century are being deepened, and the medium -term ones tend to recreate a crisis, and that is seen in the US situation., And the effect is contrary. I do not have an optimistic vision for 2025, but, as the writer said, “a pessimist is a well -informed optimistic.” As a historian I see that trends do not go to a more human environment, of tranquility.