During the first two months of the year, collection showed a year-on-year growth of 6.4%. Nevertheless, after the events recorded in March that affect international geopolitics, new closure scenarios will be evaluated for this year and projections towards 2027.
The head of the Superintendency of Tax Administration (SAT), Werner Ovalle, reported that, as of February 28, 2026, the net collection of taxes administered by that institution amounted to Q18 thousand 467.2 million, which represents an interannual increase of 6.4%, equivalent to an additional Q1,108.4 million compared to the same period in 2025.
The data presented does not yet reflect the possible effects derived from the international geopolitical conflict, which has maintained pressure on the prices of refined energy products that Guatemala imports.
“As for the shock in fuel prices, its impact will depend on the response of economic activity. Considering that collection lags behind its behavior, it will be necessary to observe its evolution at the end of the month of March and comprehensively during the coming months,” explained Ovalle.
Commission will evaluate collection in the face of global uncertainty
In May, the Technical Commission on Public Finance (CTFP) plans to prepare the collection scenarios for 2026, depending on the international contextonal, with the aim of confirming the current figures or, where appropriate, adjusting them.
For this fiscal year, a collection of Q119 billion is projected.
However, the CTFP must evaluate whether, despite the uncertainty and the international environment, tax collection—which finances the spending program—remains solid, which would allow positive fiscal results to be foreseen.
The analysis will be based on the evaluation that the Monetary Board will carry out on monetary, exchange and credit policy, scheduled for the coming weeks, as well as the review of different short-term indicators.
In this context, the CTFP—made up of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the Ministry of Public Finance (Minfin), the SAT and the Planning and Programming Secretariat of the Presidency (Segeplán)— It must outline the tax collection scenario for this year, as well as the projected structure for 2027.