As had been anticipated, the rise in the international price of a barrel of oil and refined products, associated with the international geopolitical conflict, impacted in April with an acceleration in the price level and the inflation rate stood at 3.24%, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Since year-on-year inflation stood at 3.24%, it means that there was an acceleration in the general increase in prices of 0.74 points compared to March, when the indicator stood at 2.50%, and reflected part of the upward impact of energy products, especially gasoline, diesel and propane.
The report confirms that the international price of oil was at average at US$99.12 per barrelwhich reflects an increase of US$7.73 compared to the March average, which was US$91.39, and US$35.58, that is, 56%, in relation to April 2025.
That means that, For the second consecutive month, the general increase in prices in the economy is reacting to international factors, especially to petroleum products, of which Guatemala is a net importer, and confirms the dependence on this input.
The CPI indicates that month-on-month inflation in April was 0.92%, a slowdown of 0.10 points compared to the higher 1.02% in March. Meanwhile, the accumulated inflation from January to April was 2.12%.
Gasolines lead inflationary rise
According to the report, by division of expenditure, tTransportation and food were the categories that had the highest positive monthly incidence, with 0.5766% and 0.1553%. respectively. Meanwhile, the division with a negative impact was alcoholic beverages, with 0.0046%, of the 13 divisions evaluated.
Four of the five products that marked a greater positive incidence (increase) in April are associated with petroleum derivatives, known as refined fuels:
- Gasoline (0.4107%)
- Urban transportation services (0.0746%)
- Propane gas in cylinder (0.0489%)
- Diesel (0.0438%)
- Guisquil (0.0410%)
The products that had a negative (low) monthly impact were:
- Green beans (-0.0200%)
- Tortillas (-0.0170%)
- Cabbage (-0.0139%)
- Natural herbs for broth (-0.0084%)
- Dried black beans (-0.0064%)
Banguat confirms energy impact
After learning about the report from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), the authorities of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) provided an explanation when analyzing the official results.
“In the current context of the increase in the international price of oil, an increase in inflation was anticipated in April of this year, as a consequence of the increase in the internal price of fuel derived from the international supply shock for energy sources,” explained Álvaro González Ricci, president of Banguat, on the afternoon of this Thursday, May 7.
When supporting the factors that affected monthly inflation, he specified that the main increases occurred in the price of gasoline, urban transportation, diesel and propane gas. Some foods of agricultural origin also increased, such as whiskey, tomatoes and lemons. Likewise, decreases were observed in the average price of beans and eggs. However, he stressed that the strongest impact comes from the rise in energy prices.
Inflation would close the year at 4%
The monetary authority gave a vision for the second half of the year on the behavior of this variable, based on the trend observed in April.
“The outlook depends on how much longer the conflict in the Middle East lasts. Most international analysts agree that this conflict could be short-lived and that the international price would be decreasing starting in June of this year; however, there is a risk that the conflict could last a little longer,” said the president of the central bank.
He reiterated that, in the base scenario, that is, the conflict is short-lived, “we anticipate that at the end of the year inflation would be around the central value of the 4% inflation target”.
“It is worth noting that we do not envision an increase in inflation that exceeds the upper limit of the goal (5%), even if the conflict were to prolong, because, unlike other countries, Guatemala began this conflict with a fairly low inflation of 1.65%,” said González Ricci when consulted by Free press.