Although the rainy season in Guatemala It is usually established in May, during the first days of this month in 2026 the country registers high temperatures and scarce rains.
The afternoon of Isolated rainfall was reported on May 7 in some sectors of Guatemala City and surrounding municipalities, but it is not yet widespread or constant rain.
This situation has generated doubts among the population about when will it start to rain regularly in the country.
When will it rain normally in Guatemala?
According to Ana Pérez, forecaster of the Insivumehthe rains are expected for the coming weeks, but for now they will be scattered and short-lived events.
The forecast indicates that as June 2026 progresses, more favorable conditions could arise for a gradual regularization of the rainy seasonespecially if the entry of humidity from the Pacific Ocean increases.
Meanwhile, isolated rains will continue mainly in the afternoon or evening hours.
Why isn’t it raining like it should?
Peréz explained that a anticyclonic circulation Located near the isthmus of Tehuantepec and Mexican territory, it maintains dry air over Guatemala.
This atmospheric system makes it difficult to form extensive and persistent cloud cover, which reduces rainfall and raises temperatures.
Normally, clouds help reduce the heat during the day, but with dry air predominating, the environment becomes hotter.
In addition, frontal systems to the north of the continent have strengthened this weather pattern.
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Where could it rain first?
The regions with the highest probability of rain, but convectivein the next few days they are:
- Southern sectors of the country
However, isolated rains could also be recorded in other areas of the national territory.
What are convective rains?
According to the institution’s forecaster, the current rainfall is of the type convectivethat is, they are formed when the heat accumulated during the day combines with humidity available in the environment.
This generates specific storms, intense at times, but of short duration and limited coverage.
Rains could improve in June
According to Ana Pérez, the climate panorama in Guatemala could change during June with the combination of several atmospheric factors that would favor a gradual increase in precipitation. Among them stand out:
Greater entry of humidity from the Pacific Oceanwhich increases the formation of cloudiness and rain in different regions of the country.
Changes in wind direction and intensityallowing humid air to enter the national territory more easily.
Presence of eastern waves coming from Africa, atmospheric systems that form near the African continent and move over the Atlantic Ocean towards the Caribbean and Central America.
These tropical waves usually generate atmospheric instability, increased cloudiness, storms and more constant rain when they reach the region. Its impact will depend on its trajectory, intensity and local conditions at the time of its arrival.
According to Insivumeh meteorological monitoring, if one or more of these systems manage to influence Guatemala during June, they could help establish the 2026 rainy season more regularly.
Insivumeh warns of rain deficit between July and August
Despite the possible improvement in June, the report from the rainy season 2026 warns that between July and August it could register precipitation deficit in various regions of the country.
The Conred remembered that the phenomenon of The Childwhich is getting stronger, can cause:
- Delays in the rainy season