President Bernardo Arévalo attributed this Wednesday, July 1, the uptick in violent events recorded in recent days in different parts of the country to the so-called “bladder effect”, a phenomenon that, as he explained, occurs when the actions of the security forces force criminal structures to abandon the territories where they operate and move to other areas, where they dispute control with rival groups.
One of the most recent events occurred in Sanarate, El Progreso, where an armed attack left seven people dead. According to the authorities, this case would be related to the dispute over control of the territory for the retail sale of drugs.
During a press conference, Arévalo stated that the behavior of criminal organizations responds to the pressure exerted by security operations.
“We are having a few weeks that are complicated because we are seeing the bladder effect, which is known, not only in Guatemala, but internationally, as one of the effects that occurs when the authorities carry out effective policies that deny control of the territory to criminal gangs and, by denying them that control, force them to emigrate to other places. And that’s what’s been happening,” Arévalo said.
The president pointed out that the joint strategy of the Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of National Defense, based on intelligence work, It has made it possible to identify the places where criminal structures operate and execute targeted actions against them.
According to Arévalo, this pressure has caused the gangs to move to other departments, where new disputes begin for control of the territories.
“The policies that the Government has been implementing with this joint strategy between the Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Defense, through a intelligence work that allows us to identify the places where they are operating, has made them begin to migrate to other places. Yesterday we spoke with the governor of El Progreso about the problem that has arisen because the gangs are moving and, upon arriving, they get into fights over the territory,” he indicated.
He added that security strategies must constantly adapt to the behavior of criminal organizations.
“Security strategies at the operational level must be dynamic, because criminals are not static. They begin to move depending on where there is pressure and try to escape. That’s where the reaction of the State has to come with a strategy that effectively persecutes them,” he stated.
Arévalo assured that the Government will continue with the operations to identify new points where criminal structures are established and execute actions to capture its members and dismantle them.
“The Government of the Republic is not going to sit still in the face of this situation. We are going to react to identify where they are moving and set up security strategies aimed at denying them territory, capturing them, preventing them from continuing to operate and continuing to dismantle them. to any group that sows uncertainty and intimidation in any part of the country,” he stated.
Homicides maintain a downward trend, according to the Government
The president maintained that, despite recent events, official statistics reflect a reduction in homicides compared to the same period last year.
“Statistics show that compared to last year, the downward trend in homicides continues. It is not increasing as it did last year. There is a difference that corresponds to the data for the month,” he noted.
Arévalo added that the figures can be compared with records from independent institutions and rejected the possibility of data manipulation.
“It does not mean that the problems are over. We know that we must continue working and respond to these new challenges, such as the dispersion of violence to new areas, which paradoxically is the result of the success that has been had in repressing these structures in Guatemala City. “We are not going to stop pursuing them or fighting to dismantle them,” he concluded.
Statistics
According to data presented by the Government with cut-off June 28, 2026authorities report the capture of 27 extraditable peoplea estimated blow of Q2 thousand 623 million to the drug trafficking economies through seizures and a 38% reduction in extortion complaints.
The Executive affirmed that these results are part of the security strategy aimed at dismantling criminal structures and affecting their sources of financing.
Regarding the homicides, the Government assured that during the first six months of 2026 a reduction is maintained compared to the same period in 2025. According to official figures from the National Civil Police (PNC), homicides went from 1 thousand 584 between January and June 2025 1 thousand 415 in the same period of 2026, which represents 169 fewer casesa decrease that authorities describe as a consecutive downward trend.
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