The tax administration updated the annual report Productivity, efficiency and non-compliance with income tax (ISR) and value added tax (VAT)in which he points out a evasion of Q47 billion.
The report corresponds to the fiscal year 2025 and quantifies the amount that the SAT identified, but that for various reasons was not collected.
To do this, it uses a methodology developed by the Revenue Administration, which incorporates macroeconomic indicators, the real activity of the economy, the potential for collecting ISR and VAT, among other variables.
Both taxes play a key role in fiscal policy, since they contribute to the financing of the current budget.
Although the technical term is tax non-compliance, it is commonly known as evasion.
SAT detects Q32 billion without collecting
The report indicates that, in the case of the ISR on lucrative activities, The non-compliance amounted to Q32,902 millionQ1 thousand 512.34 million more than in 2024, when Q31 thousand 389.77 million were identified. The increase was 4.8%.
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The non-compliance rate of the ISR on income from lucrative activities reached 69.25%, while the compliance rate was 30.75%.
In addition, the report adds that taxpayers reported losses of Q25,228 million during the year.
The Municipality estimated that the potential collection of the ISR in 2025 was Q47,512 million, with a potential tax base of Q190 billion.
VAT registers lower evasion
Due to VAT evasion, the amount identified in 2025 was Q14 thousand 109 million, 3.8% less than the Q14,669 million registered in 2024, which reflects a reduction in the gap, according to the official report.
The figures reveal that the non-compliance rate reached 21.36%, while the compliance rate was 78.64%.
The Municipality reports that taxable consumption was Q616,586 million, with a potential tax base of Q675,047 million.
The potential collection is estimated at Q66 billion.
VAT is the tax that taxes consumption in the economy and, in 2025, the extraordinary income from family remittances exceeded US$25,530 million, equivalent to about Q195 billion.
On previous occasions it has been explained that the transfers sent by Guatemalan migrants from the United States boost household consumption, mainly in items such as food and goods acquired in the informal sector of the economy, as well as in untaxed services, including education, health and medicines.
The current and planned efforts of the SAT translate into greater revenue, it is necessary to avoid measures such as the elimination of taxes or the creation of special tax regimes that further erode the tax base.
It was also identified that activities such as housing rental and some health services present greater difficulties in complying with their tax obligations.
Among the measures implemented to reduce non-compliance are the reduction of billing to the final consumer (CF), the cancellation of tax documents and actions against apocryphal billing structures. These consist of simulating non-existent operations or supporting real operations with invalid tax documents.
IMF urges to increase tax revenues
In its recent evaluation of Guatemala, corresponding to the Article IV consultation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned a month ago that reducing social and infrastructure gaps requires increasing tax revenues.
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The mission noted that, despite the advances of the SAT in areas such as tax compliancedigitalization, the management of tax refunds and customs modernization, tax revenues have remained around 12% of gross domestic product (GDP) for decades.
He added that, for the SAT’s current and planned efforts to translate into greater revenue, it is necessary to avoid measures such as the elimination of taxes or the creation of special tax regimes that further erode the tax base; limit tax arbitrage, both internal and cross-border; and, ultimately, undertake a comprehensive tax reform that rationalizes tax expenditures, expands the tax base and increases tax rates, currently at extremely low levels, especially in the income tax.
“A tax policy analysis should be initiated without delay,” says the IMF.
Tax fraud distorts competition
Asked about this, Ricardo Barrientos, executive director of the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (Icefi), stated that non-compliance with ISR and VAT constitutes a tax fraud that taxpayers commit not only against the tax system, but also against those who honestly comply with their tax obligations.
He added that, in terms of competition, these amounts harm the economy and collective well-being, because taxpayers – large, medium, special or small – who comply in a timely and complete manner with the obligations established by law are at a disadvantage compared to those who commit tax fraud.
They ask to prosecute tax fraud
The Icefi director explained that there are so-called “tax shields” and that evasion can also constitute crimes provided for in the Tax Code, such as misappropriation or tax and customs fraud. He added that these crimes must be investigated by the Public Ministry, with the technical support of the SAT.
He recalled that the tax administration has the ability to detect simulations or attempts at fraud by omitting the settlement of the corresponding taxes.