Although at a general level Exports from January to May grew 5.5% Compared to the same period in 2025, various non-traditional products, such as fruits, legumes and vegetables, as well as the food and beverage segment, report declines, which not only affects income, but also puts hundreds of jobs in the country at risk.
According to figures from the Bank of Guatemala, exports as of May of this year reached US$7,199 million, a growth of 5.5% compared to the same period in 2025, driven by several products; However, there are other segments that continue to report declines.
In the legumes and vegetables segmentexports in that same period fell by US$28.7 million, which represents -24.3%, since they stood at US$89.6 million.
In the specific case of peas, although they have registered falls in the last three annual periods, of -0.7% and -14.8%, from January to May of this year exports were US$53.3 million, which reflects a decrease of -16.8%, according to data from the Guatemalan Association of Exporters (Agexport).
In fresh, dried and frozen fruits, US$243.8 million were exported in the same period, with a decrease of -5.6%.
While in the aquaculture and fishing segment US$43.9 million were sent, with a drop of -9.6%.
Affected by maintaining a 10% tariff
Agexport states that one of the aspects that influences the drop in exports of certain non-traditional products is that Several of these segments remain with a 10% tariff to be imported into the United States.
“These sectors are already in survival mode, such as agriculture and aquaculture; they face severe difficulties and are affected by these barriers,” as does the contact centers (customer service centers) for other reasons, indicated Claudia de Del Águila, Director of Advocacy of the Export Environment at Agexport.
Read also: Risk for US$1.53 billion in exports excluded from tariff benefits, warns Agexport
The entity carried out an analysis of the products, especially agricultural products that still have a 10% tariff, and linked them to the departments where the crops are located, as well as their impact on employment, wages or families.
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Products that are not in the reciprocal trade agreement with the United States are mainly produced in departments with greater migratory flows, where people usually emigrate, among other reasons, due to the lack of employment in Guatemala, according to the Agexport analysis.
If they are observed only exports to the United States in legumes and vegetables, these reported a drop of -5.2% in 2024, which was accentuated in 2025 with -8.5%; while the interannual drop as of March 2026 was 25%, with exports of US$61.4 million, adds the Agexport analysis.
In the case of vegetables and minivegetables, the Association said that only in products such as peas, broccoli and French beans, the activity represents 5.6 million wages per year, in addition to 65,587 permanent jobs. The activity involves around 70 thousand families.
Agexport reports that the departments where some vegetables and minivegetables are produced – such as peas, broccoli, Brussels sprouts, cauliflower, French green beans, lettuce, cabbage and carrots – and where the migratory phenomenon is greatest are Baja Verapaz, Huehuetenango, Jalapa, Jutiapa, Quiché, San Marcos and Sololá.
While exports of fresh, dried or frozen fruits had reported annual growth from 2023 to 2025, in the period to May 2026 exports to the US are US$173.2 million, with a drop of -2.5%.
In this case, the entity identified that the departments where fruits such as blueberries, melons, blackberries and watermelons are produced, and where the migratory phenomenon is greatest, are Baja Verapaz, Huehuetenango, Jalapa, Jutiapa, Petén, Quiché and San Marcos.
In this segment, around 8.1 million wages are generated, in addition to 29,500 permanent jobs, and it benefits about 25,000 families.
Other sectors
The Agexport executive said that other sectors are also impacted by the 10% US tariff, such as manufacturing.
In this group are beverages, alcoholic liquids and vinegar, with a general drop in all markets of almost 7% as of May 2026. According to data from the Bank of Guatemala, US$193.7 million had been exported during that period, with a drop of US$13.8 million.
The manufacturing sector generates 305 thousand jobs directly related to exports; However, thousands of these could be affected in the product segments that are experiencing declines, Agexport reported.
The aquaculture and fishing sector reflects a drop of -9.6%, already mentioned, which also affects income and jobs.
The executive mentioned other sectors with declines, such as wooden furniture (-3%), plastics (-2.6%) and cosmetics (-3%). With the exception of fabrics and fabrics, which report a drop of -12%, the aforementioned sectors maintain tariffs, he added.
Services and other factors
In the services sector, the pace of export growth has also decreased, as it went from 10% to 5% in the first quarter of the year.
In the first quarter of 2026 they reached US$1,198 million. In this case, call centers and the hiring of an external company (BPO, in English), included in that segment, registered a year-on-year drop of -8%, according to the Agexport report.
This is an important sector for the country, since it generates 45 thousand formal jobs and impacts thousands of families, said de Del Águila, and indicated that human resources with command of the English language are needed, which is why he considers an educational policy that includes its teaching necessary. For example, a short and medium term government plan.
“The sector can double its formal jobs in five years, but that capacity is not being generated in human resources,” he added. He also pointed out that another aspect that affects them is the costs derived from the scarcity of that resource.
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He explained that the association developed a competitiveness agenda to transform the export environment, in which they identified four barriers: road infrastructure, port inefficiency, high energy costs and bureaucracy in procedures.
He added that the contact center sector is affected by high energy costs, which limits its expansion to the interior of the country, as well as by the shortage of human talent with the necessary skills.
Reciprocal agreement and decision of the USTR general expectations
In the case of the United States, although Guatemala has the FTA (CAFTA-DR)after that country imposed global tariffs in 2025, in January of this year a reciprocal trade agreement was signed that includes the tariff exemption for around 72% of Guatemalan products.
The Minister of Economy, Gabriela García, indicated that next week the country will have its first official hearing to deliver the results of the commitments, so she hopes to “have clearer information about the entry into force, the tariff items and the deadlines.”
In addition, the country is also waiting for this week the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to make a decision on the investigation of 60 economies, including Guatemala, of section 301. on prohibition of imports of goods produced by forced laborand that had initially indicated that none of them proposed and did propose tariffs. Last week the phase of public comments and consultations in which the government and private entities participated was exhausted.
The Agexport executive indicated that they are waiting for the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to announce the result of its evaluation of the comments received in the investigation under section 301. On July 22, that entity is scheduled to appear before the United States Senate Finance Committee, where it could refer to said results.
“We trust that the comments of the Government of Guatemala, as well as those made by the various export sectors in the section 301 consultation, will be taken into account, as they are in line with the America First policy, and that the US$1.3 billion of Guatemalan exports that currently pay a 10% tariff can return to 0%. The United States is one of our main trading partners, followed by Central America,” he added.
Carla Caballeros, executive director of the Chamber of Agriculture, indicated that what is scheduled in the Finance Committee is a summons to Ambassador Jamieson Greer, of the USTR; However, the decision can be made any day of the week.
For its part, the Guatemalan American Chamber of Commerce (Amcham Guatemala) indicated that 2027 will be the first full year of validity of the agreement, which represents an opportunity to strengthen competitiveness and investment.
He added that the agreement is key to attracting foreign direct investment of US origin in nearshoring.
On Monday, July 20, Amcham held the event “Forecast Guatemala 2027 – Economic and Business Perspectives”, in which the country’s economic prospects and challenges for competitiveness were analyzed.
The Bank of Guatemala maintains its growth projection at 4.1% for 2026 and 4% for 2027, with a fiscal deficit of 3.7% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).