Now with the new decision of the United States to apply a tariff of 20.91% to the tomato imported from Mexico, when suspending an anti -dumping agreement, certain opportunity could be observed for Guatemalan production to increase its exports to the first of the countries mentioned, but even the panorama is not clear.
Carla Caballeros, Executive Director of the Agro Chamber of Guatemala (Camagro) explained that the new 20.91% tariff to Mexican tomatoes derived from the reactivation of an anti -dumping measure changes the rules, since Mexico with 95% of the import market has been the main supplier.
This country records around US $ 2,700 million exported in 2024, while Guatemala represents less than 1% of the total, with around US $ 19 million annually.
The executive explains that, although this measure can represent an opportunity, Guatemalan exporters face their own challenge since it considers that the reciprocal tariff as a global rate that was set from 10% reduces competitiveness against countries with free access. Now, unlike Mexico, which faces an anti -dumping measure, the case of Guatemala is part of the policy of reciprocal tariffs and lack of certainty persists.
The Executive explains that the tomato market is very competitive and sensitive to the price, and that, to take any opportunity, logistics barriers need to solve and recover competitiveness conditions in transit costs and times.
“There is an opportunity, but it depends on increasing local production, improving the competitiveness of the country and guaranteeing access to the market that is limited today with the 10%reciprocal tariff,” Caballeros said.
He cited that, according to the import data of fresh and refrigerated tomatoes from Guatemala, of the electronic page of the United States Department of Agriculture, shipments from our country have oscillated between US $ 17.2 million to US $ 20.7 million annually between 2020 and 2024. In 2024 were US $ 19.05 million of 2024).
These figures indicate Guatemala is maintained as a constant supplier of fresh tomatoes to the United States, he added.
Francisco Viteri, director of Agropecuaria Popoyán, explained that currently the agribusiness of tomatoes in Guatemala represents about 8 thousand hectares of cultivation with local approach, and there are about 10 thousand producers of small medium and large scale with production throughout the country.
He explained that Fasagua has led the sector, which is considered an innovative agricultural sector that generates and applies more technology to produce in agriculture.
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Exports to the United States entail certain conditions that include production should not be outdoors, so it has been invested in the necessary tools. “We have invested in research and development, greenhouses, meshes, tunnels, genetic automation, packaging plants, generating thousands of decent jobs,” says the Executive.
He explains that Guatemala exports to the United States market comply with strict production protocols established in binational agreements, which guarantees the phytosanity and safety of the Guatemalan product, and the result of the innovation implemented by the producers, the product is differentiated and recognized in the US for its quality.
Many companies and consumers in the United States benefit from this sector of Guatemala. However, he explained that our country is at a disadvantage with Mexico due to logistics costs, salaries and supplies, but for quality recognition it is competed in the market.
Viteri states that at this time it is very difficult to issue an opinion regarding what will happen to tariffs. And, he reviews what has happened from two months to date:
- Several months ago both countries had steel tariffs, but two months ago the US government announced that referring to reciprocal tariffs that would impose 25%to Mexico, and Guatemala remained at zero because no changes for the country had been announced.
- Then the rise to Mexico was suspended, so they were the same. But on April 2, they set 10% to Guatemala (valid as of April 5) while Mexico respects its preferential rates with the FTA.
- While on April 14, it was announced again that Mexico would be 20.9% as of July 14, while Guatemala keeps 10% announced as a global tariff.
On April 14, 2025 the United States decided to withdraw from an anti -dumping agreement of 2019 that left these tariffs suspended because it had not been achieved with this protecting US tomato producers from Mexican imports for minor prices, according to information from authorities of that country and international media.
Viteri says that in this issue there is a lot to see, and there is uncertainty of what will be applied.
The executive explained that for the Guatemalan tomato there are two markets, one is the American and the other the regional with Central America.
“Just as there are tariffs can greatly affect our regional sector since it will be better business for Mexico to export to Guatemala than to the United States,” he added. However, it also observes that the export sector could be benefited to some extent.
He comments that the Guatemala sector has great opportunities worldwide since in tomatoes and chiles the country is becoming a Central American technological hub with great influence in South America with a lot of capacity and recognition which is already generating benefits for the sector.
Therefore, reference must be taken advantage of nearshoring and seeing the business with a different optics ”, however, he believes that it should be negotiated with the United States since Guatemala has been a friendly country for them, with a positive commercial balance in favor of the United States, and believes that there are good possibilities of achieving a good negotiation.
“The Government and Private Sector must agree on a agreed rational position and carry a voice that benefits all Guatemalans and negotiate,” Viteri said.
Luis Eduardo Mendoza, agricultural advisor and consultant, and tomato architect, commented that Guatemala exports four types of tomato, one is the apple tree, another the racimo apple (with 5 units), the one known as Cherry in red or yellow colors and the grape also in those colors, but more oval shape similar to that of a grape.
He recalled that there were about 22 greenhouse projects to export to the United States mainly in Guatemala, but there are only five or six, and now many producers are focusing on the local and regional market. This is because the US market was saturated by low -cost Mexican product, and those two countries since 2016 are fighting because Mexico was selling at lower price than US producers.
Production in Mexico has grown since there are currently 80 thousand to 90 thousand hectares of greenhouses and with it Guatemala cannot compete with high volumes but with specific quality and some aimed at specialized niches.
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Another of Guatemala’s disadvantages is shipping logistics since to get from the producing areas to the port of Izabal and even reach the distributor in the United States, about 8 days are required, and Mexico can move it faster via land. In addition, the production window of both countries is the same months.
There could be a opportunity but I did not observe that there would be much interest in reactivating the sector in Guatemala, because it should also be taken into account that if the tariff to Mexico is applied, the difference with which Guatemala has would only be 11%, and that difference is not enough for the challenges exposed, Mendoza added, indicating that a planning of more than four or five months is required for planting and the commercial war Decisions about tariffs.
Wilfredo Morán, Fasagua advisor, also recalled that the United States asks to be production under protected conditions, that is, in greenhouses. The country also exports Chile Color pepper.
It is an opportunity to grow exports, if that tariff is completed to Mexico, but we will have to expect what happens, he added.
Although he said that Mexico still has the advantage of low transport costs because the border is close and can move it by land to the markets of Texas and California, consider that there is opportunity, it is only a matter of coordinating with the private company it exports. There are currently around 20 companies that are exporting the product of several departments of the country.
He estimates that a weekly container is being sent, but it is due to lack of production, it may be that, with new tariffs, especially the Eastern markets such as Florida, New York, New Jersey are shipping options from Puerto Barrios, Izabal.