The Rainy season It approaches And, according to the climatic perspective of National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (Insivumeh)several regions of the country could face Precipitation above average In the next three months, between May and July 2025.
Insivumeh indicates that the rains are due to the entrance of moisture from both oceans, combined with high temperatures that favor the formation of storm clouds.
The rainy season would be established in the centerhe Peaceful and the East valleys From the second half of May.
In Peténit is expected to start between May 25 and June 5. For Junea month with frequent rains is expected in a good part of the territory national.
Where are the most intense rains expected?
- Cross stripe from the north
- Caribbean
- Bocacosta
- South of the Central Altiplano
In the rest of the country – including the North, West, East, Central Altiplano and the Pacific Region– the rains will be within normal levels For this time of year.
Neutral conditions: What does it mean?
Unlike other years marked by The child either The girlthis quarter will be developed under conditions Neutraswhich means that there will be no direct influence of those phenomena.
However, according to the Insivumeh forecast, that does not eliminate the risk of severe local stormswith strong winds, electrical activity, hail or even Low -scale tornado formation.
For May-Julio quarter (MJJ), Insivumeh points out that there is 81% probability of neutral conditions of the neutral conditions The South Child-Board Phenomenon (ENOS). This implies that there will be no direct influence of the boy or the girl on the climate.
For June-August (JJA), neutrality would be maintained with 66% probability.
More heat and cyclone season
Along with the rains, they will remain high temperatures In regions such as Northhe Caribbeanthe Bocacostathe East valleys and the Peaceful.
This, in addition to making an extreme heat environment more perceptible, can raise the risk of diseases such as denguedue to the proliferation of mosquitoes, and more intense storms.
According to the prognosis of Insivumeh for the May-Julio quarter (MJJ) of 2025, the warmer regions from Guatemala will be:
Warmer regions
- Peaceful
- Bocacosta
- Caribbean
- North
- East valleys
- Transverse strip of the north (north)
Maximum planned temperatures
- Between 26 ° C and 38 ° C on average for these warm regions.
- In contrast, the areas of the West and the Central Altiplano They will have fresher temperatures, with maximums between 14 ° C and 30 ° C.
Highest historical temperature
Although high temperatures are expected, Historical climatic records would not be overcomeas:
- The forge, Zacapa: 44 ° C in 1998
- Flowers, Petén: 42.6 ° C in 2016
- Livingston, Izabal: 41.5 ° C in 1998
Cyclonic season: more active than normal
The hurricanes season will start first in the Pacific Basin, he May 15, 2025and later in the Atlantiche June 1.
The forecast is updated throughout the cyclonic season and, according to the latest update of the State University of Colorado (CSU), a Activity above the average in the North Atlantic.
Cyclonic season prognosis 2025 – North Atlantic Basin
| Parameter | Average (1991–2020) | Prognosis 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Named storms | 14.4 | 17 |
| Hurricanes | 7.2 | 9 |
| Major hurricanes | 3.2 | 4 |
| Source: CSU, 2025 | ||
Key recommendations for the population
- Ensure roofs and structures vulnerable to strong storms
- Be attentive to alerts by floods, landslides or lahars In volcanic areas
- Avoid prolonged exposure to the sun between 11.00 and 16.00
- Do not accumulate stagnant water to prevent mosquitoes
- In the case of the agricultural sector, consult the recommendations of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food (MAGA) to plan the harvest cycle
- For hikers or hikers, take precautions by ascending volcanoes, since the weather could be unfavorable
Know the quarterly climate perspective ☀️🌧️#Somosinsivumeh #CIV #EblodignoEsPrimero pic.twitter.com/x0zjaznqym
– Insivumeh (@insivumehgt) April 30, 2025