Guatemala exports registered a positive growth of 4.4% in the first month of the year, which coincides with the change of presidential authorities in the United States and in which several tariff measures have been announced.
Foreign sales were at US $ 1 thousand 213 million, which represented an increase of US $ 51 million when comparing with January 2024.
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The result is considered positive, in the midst of a turbulence for the different measures, especially in the implementation and application of tariffs between the economic blocks that involve the main commercial partners of Guatemala and that maintain a close relationship and dependence.
In January, exports for the United States represented US $ 369.9 million with a 30.5% share, but for Central America 34.4% for US $ 417.6 million, according to official figures.
20% drop
The foreign trade statistics that the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) updated last Monday shows a 20% drop for the costume articles sector, which has been the main export product of Guatemala.
Now in January, they were the exports of sugar that was possible to place as first place in the list of the 25 products in both currencies and volume and displaced by a slight margin to the costume items, which is what attracts attention. Both products have in common the United States as the main country of destination.
“With the arrival of Trump, we do not know what will happen: because tomorrow you can say that the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will be negotiated and such a tariff will be put, we think that the policy of putting even tariffs can benefit, but also harm”
Alejandro Ceballos, Vice President of Vestex
For example, the currencies for the sale of sugar were US $ 98.3 million; costume articles US $ 97.1 million; Coffee US $ 96.4 million; BANANO US $ 76.1 million and fresh fruits, dry or frozen US $ 51.1 million, which are the five main export products to January, according to official figures.
For Jacobo Pieters Chief of the Market Intelligence Unit of the Guatemalan Exporters Association (AGEXPORT), the thesis is that the behavior of exports, at the end of January of the year 2025, shows how Guatemala continues to seek commercial opening, positioning itself in the mind of the international consumer, exporting goods and services proactively and efficiently.
Trump effect?
Pietters is the idea that the Trump effect (by the announcement of protectionism by way of tariffs) is not yet directly reflected in the export figures, this despite the fact that the United States continues to be the main commercial partner (exports and imports) and that assumes the presidency in mid -January and the tariff actions mentioned them after their assumption.
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“Yes, we see concern in the international market for the conditions and tariffs that Trump has mentioned, and this opens the door for buyers to look for new suppliers in Guatemala opening new doors and opportunities,” said Agxport coach.
Uncertainty reigns
Upon knowing the negative results of January, Alejandro Ceballos, vice president of the costume and textile commission (Vestex) assigned to the AGEXPOR uncertainty in the world. ”
On the Trump effect, the manager pointed out that “there was a chance, and it was thought that the blocks were going to be closed by tariffs, especially to China, that they were imposed, it would bring more work to the factories in Guatemala, in textile, but not in seam, which is the most expensive and transportation work”.
“Yes we see concern in the international market for the conditions and tariffs that Trump has mentioned, and this opens the door for buyers to look for new suppliers in Guatemala opening new doors and opportunities”
Jacobo Pietrs Chief of the Agexport Market Intelligence Unit
“With the arrival of Trump, we do not know what will happen: because tomorrow you can say that the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will be negotiated and such a tariff will be put, we think that the policy of putting even tariffs can benefit, but also harm,” he said.
He cited as an example, that for Asia countries that are not China, the scene of not imposing tariffs on textiles can be given, and they respond similar (known as reciprocal measures), because factories in those countries exceed Guatemala in prices.
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“The arrival of Trump excited at the beginning, but now we do not know what will happen to what he is going to do, because it is competed in the US market., With those garments that pay the Asian tariff of 45% that are the synthetic fabric shirts,” said Ceballos.
The real uncertainty, according to the director of Vestex, is how tariff policies will be implemented by the US, if they will be for all countries in general or for certain economic blocks that maintain trade agreements “and is a great uncertainty and is what is reflected in the stock markets.”
Perspectives are still optimistic
The foreign trade indicator in January, must be analyzed from several points of view, but the positions are optimistic.
Pietters indicated that projections estimate that exports will grow between 4% or 5% in relation to 2024, and Ceballos, stressed that optimism is maintained for the costume and textile sector.
The statistics of the Central Banking indicate that exports in 2025 will be at US $ 15 thousand 317 million, which would be greater than US $ 14,588 million in 2024. For imports, US $ 34 thousand 763 million is projected, exceeding US $ 32 thousand 489 million last year.