It was a crucial moment for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Melonidefend his close ties with President Donald Trump. On the floor of the Italian Senate he heard an opposition deputy question his ties to an American leader who, in his words, had brought “destruction” to the Middle East, had allied himself with the Russians and sought the disintegration of Europe and NATO. Meloni’s response surprised even Senator Carlo Calenda himself, who asked the question. “Senator Calenda, frankly, I don’t consider your assessments of President Trump to be unreasonable,” he said.
Following the start of Trump’s unpopular war in the Middle East, European leaders who had strengthened ties with the president see those ties transform from an advantage into a liability. Perhaps nowhere is this more evident than in Italy, where Meloni, known as Trump’s confidant in Europe, is making risky political maneuvers, condemning what she describes as a dangerous Iranian regime while also questioning the legality of the war. On Wednesday he condemned the attack on an Iranian school that left some 175 people dead, most of them children, and demanded swift “accountability” for what he called a “massacre,” at a time when Italian media have widely reported on suspicions of U.S. guilt.
In that same appearance, Meloni, a member of the right-wing populist Brothers of Italy party, warned of “unilateral interventions carried out outside the framework of international law.” echoing by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carneythe target of criticism from Trump, who has spoken of a “rupture” in the world order under the current US administration, declared “the collapse of a shared world order.” “This is a process that has been underway for some time, but, in my opinion, has reached a very specific inflection point,” Meloni said.
His approach, unlike Carney’s, did not make value judgments, but was presented as an objective evaluation of modern times. He attributed the erosion of international law to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. He also appeared to support US objectives, saying: “We cannot afford an ayatollah regime in possession of nuclear weapons.” But the senator who challenged her, a former government minister with whom Meloni has a working relationship, saw in her comments about the war against Iran the turning point that marked the stance towards Trump.
“She defended not only Trump, but also the values of the Maga movement,” Calenda said in an interview with The Washington Post. “And I think what changed everything was this war. Because, even within their own electoral base, they are very upset about what’s happening.” “The truth is that Trump is becoming very, very unpopular in Italy,” the senator added. “This war is very unpopular.” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, a center-left socialist, has made headlines by opposing the Trump administration over the war in Iran. However, a more worrying sign for the White House could be the reaction of its closest European allies: a set of right-wing and populist leaders for whom the administration had expressed support, but who now find themselves on the defensive.
Within the far-right German party Alternative for Germany (AfD), which the Trump administration has defended and allied with in the past, the US attack on Iran has sparked a war of words. Tino Chrupalla, co-leader of the AfD, criticized Trump in a radio interview, in which he stated that he would go from being remembered as a president of peace to one of “war.” This provoked a strong reaction from the supporters of the American ruler in the ranks of the AfD, especially because Chrupalla was more critical of Trump than the center-right German chancellor, Friedrich Merz.
Last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio went out of his way to pay tribute to Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has called the Republican president a “very pragmatic and rational leader.” However, he criticized the attack on Iran in harsher terms than Sánchez, stating in a video message to his nation: “We are witnessing further proof of the total collapse of the international order and the complete disregard for international law. The great and powerful do whatever they want… we can condemn these actions, but that will change absolutely nothing in the face of a military attack on Iran.” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who maintains close ties with the White House and Trump’s Maga movement, has relied on the support of the American leader to face what is shaping up to be the most difficult elections of his mandate this April.
He has sought ambiguity in his response to the outbreak of war, backing Trump but also suggesting in a television interview that he had “advised” him not to wage it. Orbán has also starkly exposed the disadvantages. “The war in the Middle East carries increasing risks,” he said in a social media post. “A prolonged conflict could trigger new waves of mass migration, flowing from Iran to Turkey, across the Balkans, to our border. At the same time, LNG supplies from Qatar have been disrupted and energy prices are rising. These are difficult times.
Hungary must prepare and make sure the dam holds.” Orbán has tried to distance himself from the war “without antagonizing Trump,” said Zsuzsanna Vegh, a political analyst at the German Marshall Fund, as he tries to take advantage of rising oil prices for an election campaign focused on criticizing Ukraine and confronting the European Union. “Orbán can’t say much more because he has positioned himself as an advocate for peace. But from the perspective of the Hungarian government, this war is bad, it can increase energy prices and revive migration flows,” Vegh said.
Meloni’s alliance with Trump is taking its toll on him at precisely the worst time, as he is investing enormous political capital in a crucial referendum on judicial reform taking place this month that some also see as a test of confidence in his government. When questioned about her ties to Trump after the intervention in Venezuela in January, she declared: “I agreed with Trump regarding Venezuela, but not regarding Greenland… It is about defending the national interest, because the interests of nations do not always coincide perfectly.”
Meloni’s “balancing act” with Trump “finally broke down with the war in Iran,” said Ferruccio De Bortoli, former director of the Corriere della Seraan Italian newspaper. “Their biggest concern today is, of course, losing support because of a war that is not theirs.” Nicola Procaccini, a close ally of Meloni and a member of the European Parliament, rejected any suggestion that the prime minister was distancing herself from Trump. “Nothing has changed in the relationship between Italy and the United States, between Meloni and Trump,” declared Procaccini. “We hope that the Iranian threat has disappeared.” He warned against haste in judging American intervention, saying: “We must wait for the war in Iran to end.” “Look at Venezuela,” he said, “the operation was perfect.”
The American leader never enjoyed real popularity in Italy. However, polls consistently showed that Italians had a less favorable opinion of Trump than the British, Germans or Spaniards. He was less alien to a country familiar with Silvio Berlusconi, the late playboy billionaire who became Italy’s most influential modern statesman. The picture of the friendship between Meloni and Trump was generally positive: an example of how Italy’s first female prime minister, and the most stable since Berlusconi, was elevating the country’s standing and importance.
Both agreed on the repression against immigrants and the anti-woke agenda. Both criticized the judges who did not rule in their favor. Meloni was one of the few European leaders to defend Vice President JD Vance after his controversial speech in Munich, in which he chastised Europe for isolating far-right parties. Their friendship became a recurring theme. During an October meeting in Egypt, Trump described her as a “beautiful young woman.” This same week, he declared to Corriere della Sera that Meloni “always tries to help, she is an excellent leader and she is a friend of mine… I love Italy and I think she is a great leader.”
But amid his threats to seize Greenland, his interventions abroad and his administration’s verbal attacks on the European Union, Trump’s popularity in Italy has fallen in recent months, and a YouGov poll in January showed that 77 percent of Italians had an unfavorable opinion of him. Now, gasoline prices at Italian gas stations are soaring during a war that many see as having no clear goal or cause, calling into question Meloni’s friendship with Trump. Meanwhile, the Italian press highlights the religious connotations and warmongering style of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, dubbing him “the ex-soldier who wants to kill everyone” and “Ayatollah Hegseth.”
Meloni’s contacts at Mar-a-Lago and the White House, his opponents noted, also did not help when American bombs fell and a regional war broke out. The Italians received no advance warning from the Americans, leaving Meloni’s own defense minister completely unprepared, stranded with his family in Dubai when airspace was closed. The verbal attacks by Elly Schlein, leader of the opposition Democratic Party, against Meloni did not usually have a very strong impact in the past. Suddenly, they started to hurt.
“The Italian government cannot remain subject to American administration, or it will irreparably damage the diplomatic role that Italy has always played… in the region,” Schlein declared shortly after the American attack. He added: “The friendship that (Meloni) claims to have with Trump did not prevent him from not warning her of the attack, to the point that our Defense Minister was trapped in Dubai.”