Since the beginning of the US-Israeli campaign against Iran, only a handful of the hundred ships that previously transited the Strait of Hormuz daily have managed to cross it. Now, with Iran reportedly placing sea mines in this narrow channel, the possibility of its closure lasting days, or even months, is no longer hypothetical.
The repercussions are already being felt in global energy markets, but the most immediate and dangerous consequences of a prolonged shutdown could directly affect food, not gasoline. The Strait of Hormuz, after all, is not just a sea route for tankers; It is a vital artery of the global food system. Essential staple foods — such as wheat, corn, rice, soybeans and sugar — transit the Strait of Hormuz on their way to the Persian Gulf countries, and farmers around the world depend on the fertilizer and fuel that flow out of it.
The Gulf States, which rely heavily on food imports, are particularly vulnerable. To ensure supplies of grain, rice, animal feed and cooking oil, they depend on open sea lanes and a constant flow of international shipments.
As the Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated, supply chain fragility is not just a war problem. In recent years, many Gulf countries have taken steps to strengthen their food systems by expanding strategic reserves and investing in domestic production. They have also explored alternative sea routes, with some cargo transported by land or through ports that avoid the Strait of Hormuz, such as the Islamic port of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, on the Red Sea.
These measures have improved resilience, but cannot fully compensate for a prolonged blockage of the Persian Gulf. Approximately 70% of the food consumed in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iraq transits through the Strait of Hormuz. With a combined population of nearly one hundred million people, replacing disrupted imports in these countries would require the daily transport of approximately 191.3 million pounds of food to the region, according to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Supplying the Persian Gulf under a blockade would therefore require an unprecedented humanitarian operation, possibly through disputed airspace. By comparison, the United Nations World Food Program delivered an average of just 15 million pounds of food per day to 81 million people in 71 countries in 2024.
A total blockade would harm Iran as much as its Arab neighbors. Disruptions to maritime trade would hit the country on both sides, restricting energy exports and raising the cost of imported commodities such as wheat, rice, animal feed and vegetable oil. For many Iranians, basic needs, from bread to rent, are already unaffordable, prompting the mass protests that rocked the country earlier this year.
Background
Historically, rising food prices and shortages have been a determining factor in political instability. In 2008, rising energy and fertilizer costs, coupled with extreme weather events and persistent policy failures, nearly doubled the price of staple crops, triggering food shortage riots in dozens of countries. A few years later, in 2010 and 2011, a historic drought and heat wave in Russia decimated grain crops and sent global food prices to record highs, setting the stage for the Arab Spring.
More recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 raised global prices for grain, fertilizer and fuel, contributing to a sharp rise in food insecurity. With the global food system under increasing pressure due to climate impacts and the lingering consequences of the pandemic, it is no surprise that the world is facing the largest spike in violent conflict since the end of World War II.
The impact of further disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would extend far beyond the Persian Gulf. Farmers around the world, from South Asia to sub-Saharan Africa, and even in Europe and the United States, depend on a stable supply of fertilizers and fuel. Natural gas is a key ingredient in nitrogen fertilizers, a pillar of modern agriculture that has helped drive crop yields to record highs. It is estimated that between 30% and 40% of the nitrogen fertilizers sold in the world transit through the strait.