The Ministry of Public Finance (Minfin) stated that the resources would come, especially, from fiscal spaces derived from execution levels projected below 100%, since the institution estimates that the execution of the 2026 budget It will be between 94% and 96%.
The implementation of decree approving the subsidy It does not modify the approved budget ceiling, which remains at Q168.1 billion, the Minfin reported. According to Sicoin data, the current budget as of April 17 is Q168,507 million.
The readjustment will be based on the optimization of the use of available resources, particularly in fiscal spaces generated by execution levels projected below 100%, assured the Minfin.
Minfin’s technical estimates place execution between 94% and 96%, “which allows resources to be reallocated without significantly affecting the provision of public services or the operation of State institutions,” the entity added.
However, he reported that the Government guarantees that the budgets of the ministries of Education, Health and the Interior “will not be subject to reduction.”
Nor will funds be used to pay personnel, since according to the Minfin, allocations for human resources in all public entities are safeguarded, and the continuity and quality of essential services is prioritized.
The entity added that financing it through budget readjustment does not imply the creation of new taxes, the increase of existing ones, or the contracting of additional debt to that already authorized by Congress. And since it is not financed by tax suspension, it will allow the specific destinations collected by taxes established in the Political Constitution and in ordinary legislation to be maintained for social programs and fundamental public services.
Érick Coyoy, an analyst at Asíes, said that this is a complex political decision that Congress left to the Government, and it will be the job of the Executive Branch to decide whether or not to touch the funds of the ministries in charge of health, security and education. If so, it would have to make heavy cuts to other entities to reach the Q1,192 million necessary to complement the subsidy.
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Regarding the Q808 million that are cut to three ministries—National Defense, Agriculture and Communications—, derived from a mandate from Congress, these institutions would have to indicate to the Minfin in which areas the adjustment would be applied, Coyoy said.
The search for funds
The Asíes analyst added that the task for the Minfin is complicated, since it will have to review the programs that could be cut in each ministry, because it cannot use Codedes funds nor the budgets of autonomous entities or those that do not belong to the Executive Body.
According to Coyoy, an analyst at Asíes, and Sigfrido Lee, an analyst at the National Economic Research Center (Cien), as of this year, budget execution should have been between 20% and 25%, but some entities or programs do not reach those figures.
Coyoy said that it is too early in the year to define which ones will have low execution at the close of the fiscal period; However, when searching for funds, one of the options to readjust the budget will be to verify, for example, which programs are below that execution level, mainly those that are below 10% or 15%, and make projections.
However, it must be taken into account that some, although they reflect low execution, are financed by specific agreements or loans and cannot be modified.
Another analysis is whether the funds from the new Priority Road Infrastructure Directorate (DIPP), which reflect low execution, can be used, since, as Coyoy explained, as the specific law stands, unused resources should go to the common fund. He commented that the Minfin considers it a non-autonomous entity, so the funds not executed this year must be transferred to the common fund next year, although other sectors maintain that, being autonomous, it must maintain its funds.
Prioritize the importance of spending
Lee believes that it is necessary to differentiate between whose budget can be removed and who should be removed, since he considers that it is not enough to verify if there is low execution, but rather to evaluate the importance or prioritization of the expense.
He agreed with Coyoy that there are entities whose budget cannot be reduced because they are not branches of the Executive, including autonomous entities or other organizations, and these are mainly those to which it is transferred as Obligations in Charge of the Treasury. The Executive can only make transfers within its own entities.
In the case of the Codedes, funds can be reduced only if approved by Congress, but Decree 11-2026, which approves the fuel subsidy, did not establish it.
Another criterion mentioned by Lee is that, although the Ministry of Communications is one of the institutions with the lowest execution – 6.6% at the end of March and 7.71% at April 17, according to Sicoin -, it does not mean that this expense is not important, and instead of cutting it, they should speed up execution to avoid ending again with low execution in infrastructure and maintenance.
“We are concerned that the CIV will be cut, because part of what has been criticized against the Government is the low execution in infrastructure”, in addition to the fact that investment is being reduced both in that and in other ministries, Lee added.
So far, the only ones that have managed to reach the 25% range are the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of National Defense, but they allocate most of the spending to operations, such as paying personnel, which are resources that are difficult to cut, he added.
“The prioritization system for readjustments based on low execution, when barely three and a half months of the year have passed, is insufficient, so it should be done based on the priority of spending,” said Lee.
Another point to analyze is the social profitability of the works or programs, he commented.
In the case of the Ministry of Social Development (Mides), according to Sicoin, it registers 11.5% as of April 17. In this case, the Cien analyst opined that Mides has demonstrated low social profitability, which is why he considers that its budget could be reduced.
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The low executions until April
In a review of programs in Sicoin, several appear with execution percentages of less than 10%. Among these:
- Ministry of Foreign Affairs, consular services and migrant care, with a current budget of Q590 million and execution of 9.9%.
- In the Minfin, the printing services program, with Q35 million and execution of 9.7%.
- In the Ministry of Labor, the program related to recreation of State workers, with Q114.2 million of current budget and 9.9% executed.
- In the Ministry of Economy, according to Sicoin, the economic integration and foreign trade management program has Q77.5 million in force and execution of 7.5%; and the development of micro, small and medium enterprises, Q105.4 million with 5.7% executed.
- In the case of the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM), it has currently been allocated Q264.9 million. This amount includes the item of promotion and control in the exploration, exploitation and marketing of hydrocarbons, with an execution of 2.1%, to which Q151.2 million was assigned this year for the technical closure of the wells in the Xan field, in Petén, pending bidding; therefore, it has not been executed. The Government would have to analyze whether to maintain that amount or reduce it.
- In the Ministry of Culture and Sports, the program to promote non-federated sports and recreation, with a current amount of Q461.6 million, has executed 9.5%; and the recognition, encouragement and promotion of interculturality, with Q15.6 million, has executed 3.2%.
- In the Ministry of Environment, with Q10.6 million, the socio-environmental awareness and citizen participation program appears, with execution of 6.7%.
- In the Ministry of Social Development (Mides) there are support service programs for social programs, with Q511 million and 6.8% executed; and crime prevention and generation of human capital, with 6.4% execution.
In addition, there are several programs in different ministries with executions between 10% and 19%.
Analysts say that it must be taken into account if the programs or projects are financed with agreements or loans, even if they register low execution, funds cannot be reduced.
Data on the gasoline and diesel subsidy in Guatemala:
- The total amount is Q2 billion for a period of three months.
- It will be subsidized with Q8 per gallon of diesel and Q5 per gallon of gasoline.
- The subsidy will be recognized to fuel importers duly registered with the General Directorate of Hydrocarbons of the MEM, after verification by the Superintendence of Tax Administration (SAT), which will validate the correct application of the reduction in prices throughout the marketing chain, explained the Minfin.
- To guarantee compliance, the Directorate of Consumer Care and Assistance (Diaco) will carry out permanent monitoring at fuel stores nationwide, it was added.
- The MEM must prepare the regulations for their implementation.