The exchange rate of the quetzal has appreciated against the United States dollar during 2026, reported the president of the Bank of Guatemala, Álvaro González Ricci, who explained the reasons for this behavior, as well as the changes in other indicators that have changed.
González Ricci explained that the exchange rate remains stable but that the quetzal has been appreciating against the dollar since last year, and this week it reached its lowest point in 2026. According to the entity’s data, that point was recorded on May 5 when it was located at Q7.63017.
According to data from Banguat, the year began with Q7.66536 for one dollar. Meanwhile, on March 9 it was quoted at Q7.65904. As of April 13, it began to hover between Q7.63 and 7.64.
With this downward trend, it reached its lowest level of the year at the Q7.63017 mentioned on May 5. Meanwhile, on May 4, it was located at Q7.63079; the 6th, in Q7.63120; and for the 7th it will be located at Q7.63027.
Regarding behavior, González Ricci said that since last year the exchange rate has been appreciating, mainly because the country is receiving more dollars than the system uses.
The official explained that the Banguat does not affect the exchange rate, but rather moderates volatility through participation mechanisms, but that There is a surplus coming from family remittances and exports, which are growing sources of income.
Family remittances grew 18.6% last year and for the current one it is projected that they will grow 5% to close with almost US$27 billion.
Exports are also growing positively, mainly in traditional products and services, he added.
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On the import side, which is where dollars are required, despite the fact that they are also growing, in recent months there has been an increase in the value of a barrel of oil, which is reflected in fuels and is also transferred to the nominal value of imports.
Asked if it is expected that the quetzal will continue to appreciate and that it could drop from Q7.63 to one dollar, González said that it could be, but that it is difficult to project it. It should be taken into account that in the first quarter the liquidation of exports was recorded and it is a time of year in which more dollars enter, and that surplus is reflected in the exchange rate.
However, he said that they expect it to remain stable, that is, that They do not visualize a slowdown or an extreme situation in appreciation, but it will probably remain at current levels, plus or minus 0.5% or 1%.
2025 started in the range of Q7.71 and in May it began to drop to Q7.66.
Oil remains volatile
Regarding the international price of oil, he said that volatility and many changes in strategy continue, mainly by the United States and Iran, which decide to block or unblock the Strait of Hormuz, and these decisions are reflected in futures contracts. It was at US$112 a barrel this week and moved to around US$94 a barrel on May 6, and He hopes that this situation will end soon, because the high price of oil is not good for anyone.
“We hope that it ends soon and that it is regularized as soon as possible, but it must be mentioned that even if the war ended today, it will take some time to reach normal levels of the price of a barrel of oil, since refining, driving, transportation and production infrastructure has been destroyed, which will take some time to rebuild again.”
So far in 2026 there has been an increase in the barrel of oil of 85% compared to last year, which closed with a drop of 19%.
Another point explained is the effect on inflation. González said that with the rise in oil, the transportation of people and merchandise also increases, cost that is transferred to the merchandise that is transported, for example, food, which directly affects the pockets of Guatemalans.
And, with the rise in oil, inflationary effects can be expected. To do this, Banguat has the mechanisms to keep inflation at the target, but an increase in inflation was already seen in March and the behavior recorded in April is expected.
Economic activity index grows, but confidence index decreases
Regarding growth, Johny Gramajo Marroquín, economic manager of the central bank, announced that the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) for the first quarter of this year grew 4.3%.
This, although in March the Middle East crisis was already being recorded with the increase in the price of oil, “it means that the economy is doing very well,” commented Gramajo.
Meanwhile, the confidence index of economic activity for April fell and stood at 51.53 points, which is 2.42% lower than that registered in March (52.81 points) and lower by 4.27% compared to that registered interannual in April 2025 (53.83 points), according to Banguat data.
González said that there is already an effect on this index derived from the rise in oil and the conflict in the Middle East, but explained that it is not because of Guatemala’s national economy, but because of the global situation, and that confidence in all countries has been declining.
As Banguat explains in its report, the confidence index has the purpose of measuring the perception of the current economic situation and the business environment of the economic analysts interviewed, which is compared with the prevailing index in the recent past; besides, seeks to obtain an appreciation of the economic evolution of the country in the near future.
Gramajo added that, according to the results, those surveyed for this index anticipate that in the coming months the economy will expand; That is why the indicator is above 50 points, but they view it with less confidence compared to previous months, because global uncertainty has increased.
“When uncertainty increases, confidence begins to decrease. But in Guatemala, unlike other countries in the world, what is anticipated is that in the next six months the economy will expand, while in other countries what is expected is that it will fall,” Gramajo added.
Meanwhile, González said that, despite a challenging external environment, Confidence remains in the expansion zone, since it is above 50 points, but if it is below that level it would be in a contraction zone.
The president of Banguat was an exhibitor at the third edition of Expo Bodegas 2026, which took place on Wednesday, May 6.