During the morning of this Friday, May 8, the American newspaper The New York Times reported that “The Child”the climatic event related to the heating of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, could become at the end of May either beginning of June in one of the strongest phenomena in recent decades in Central America.
This is because the winds over the Pacific are changing and the largest mass of water on Earth this releasing accumulated heat, so chain effects could occur on the rainsthe droughts and the forest fires in the geographic region within the continent between North America and South America.
Given this situation, the National Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAAfor its acronym in English) stated that there is a 60% probability that El Niño will develop by the end of Mayand this is one of the reasons why he considers that the 2026 could be the year warmer of the planet since these records began.
“The constant warming of the Earth due to the burning of fossil fuels It is also influencing the way these episodes shape climate across the planet. “Now we have a different climate reference point,” added Clara Deser, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. Colorado.
The impact of El Niño on the world
Historically, meteorologists classify El Niño as strong either weak depending on how warm the Pacific waters are compared to average. Therefore, the phenomena strong cause various effects throughout the continent and, in theory, the most recent phenomenon of El Niño, in the 2023was not as strong as its predecessors.
However, according to NOAA scientists, an important amplifying factor for 2026 is the heating induced by man, because the additional heat increased the evaporationwhich intensified the drought in the region. Furthermore, it also increased the rains in the south, because hot air can retain more humidity.
In Central AmericaEl Niño usually causes more severe conditions wet in the south and more warm or dry in the north. However, “a stronger El Niño phenomenon can only make certain outcomes more likely, but does not ensure them,” according to Michelle L’Heureuxa meteorologist who coordinates all NOAA updates.
“Both extremesdry and wet, are increasing,” said the atmospheric scientist, who said that for farmers, land managers, disaster agencies and insurance companies “there is nothing that can provide such a reliable indication of what the world could be like in a few stations later.”
Uncertainties about El Niño
NOAA scientists found that in 2023, an unusual heat pattern in the oceans Indian and Atlantic tropical climate counteracted the effects of El Niño. Therefore, the pattern is likely due to both warming caused by emissions of gases greenhouse effect and long-term natural climate variations.
Faced with this scenario, according to the American newspaper The New York TimesEl Niño continues to give signs extraordinarily useful about the future climate, despite all these uncertainties. “It is the best we have,” concluded Andréa Taschetto, a climatologist at the University of New South Wales, in Sydney, Australia.