On the afternoon of this Friday, May 8, the country risk rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global Ratings confirmed Guatemala’s rating at BB+ with stable perspective, despite the adverse international economic environment.
This means that from abroad there are favorable macroeconomic conditions for Guatemala during the next 12 months; However, challenges and delays persist.
In 2025, The rating agency improved Guatemala’s grade from BB to BB+. On that occasion he argued the history of macroeconomic stability, economic resilience and government measures aimed at improving governance, investment in infrastructure and transparency, among other aspects, which configured a growth scenario.
To complete this cycle during the first semester, a mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in charge of the evaluation of Article IV – an “examination” for Guatemala – will be in the country from May 27 to June 5 to learn about the performance of various indicators and the prospects for 2026 and 2027.
Economic stability sustains the note
With the result announced this afternoon, Juan Carlos Zapata, executive director of the Foundation for the Development of Guatemala (Fundesa), declared to Free press: “It is clearly recognized what this qualification implicitly communicates: stability is already built into the note. To make the final leap to investment grade, Guatemala must demonstrate that its macroeconomic strength can be translated into sustained growth, greater investment in strategic infrastructure, attraction of foreign direct investment and structural improvements in the institutional field.”
He reiterated that the approval of the Priority Road Infrastructure Law and the Public-Private Partnerships Law are steps in the right direction; However, as long as the Government does not implement them, passing laws that are not followed only affects the evaluation.
“Now the imperative is effective implementation. The S&P, Moody’s and Fitch agencies agree on the diagnosis: the legal framework is improving; what follows is to demonstrate execution capacity,” he pointed out when asked.
Guatemala maintains a solid profile
The official statement indicates that Guatemala’s long history of macroeconomic resilience, with the lowest level of net government debt in Latin America, together with a solid external profile and a credible monetary policyhelps the country face external shocks.
From abroad, favorable macroeconomic conditions are observed for Guatemala during the next 12 months; However, challenges and delays persist.
“The Government continues to face challenges in fully executing its infrastructure plan in order to boost investment and improve social conditions. We confirm Guatemala’s long-term sovereign credit ratings at ‘BB+’,” the report highlights.
He adds that the outlook remains stable and indicates that, in his opinion, prudent macroeconomic policies will prevail in the coming years, supported by “fiscal and external cushions.”
S&P conditions improvement of the grade
The report from the rating agency S&P breaks down different variables and scenarios in which it could raise or lower Guatemala’s rating. These exercises are part of the evaluations carried out by these firms on the perception of the country.
Perspective: The stable outlook reflects the rating agency’s view that prudent macroeconomic policies and low government debt will persist over the next two years, despite slightly higher fiscal deficits resulting from the expected increase in infrastructure spending.
Negative scenario: The rating agency could lower Guatemala’s rating in the next 12 to 24 months if the medium-term GDP growth trajectory deteriorates, for example, due to a sharper decline in remittances and domestic consumption, which could erode the country’s fiscal and external position.
Positive scenario: The rating agency could raise the grade in the next 12 to 24 months if it sees signs of greater collaboration between the Government and Congress, which could improve policy implementation, strengthen the economy’s resilience and increase income. This could increase investor confidence and lead to higher-than-expected economic growth, higher per capita income and better social indicators.
Foundation: Guatemala’s ‘BB+’ ratings reflect the country’s record of macroeconomic stability and economic resilience. Key credit strengths include manageable fiscal deficits, very low net debt, solid external position and a consistent track record of sound monetary policy.
On the other hand, according to the report, the ratings incorporate the firm’s opinion that Guatemala still has developing public institutions, a historically high perception of corruption, a fragmented political landscape that sometimes limits the effectiveness of public policies, and large infrastructure needs that restrict economic growth.