Economic activity, measured by the estimate of the Monthly Index of the Economic Activity (IMAE), registered a growth of 4.6% in March 2026, greater dynamism than that observed in the same month last year, when it stood at 4.2%.
According to information from Banguat, this result was explained, in particular, by the increase observed in activities related to sectors such as commerce and vehicle repair; manufacturing industries; real estate activities; financial and insurance activities; and information and communications.
Meanwhile, the accumulated growth from January to March 2026 stood at 4.4%, also higher than that reported in the first quarter of 2025, when it was 3.8%.
Regarding possible effects ofThe conflict in the Middle East At the IMAE, the president of Banguat, Álvaro González Ricci, explained that as of March there is no impact on this indicator.
He explained that the main effect is reflected in inflation, Therefore, the estimate of economic growth for this year is still maintained at 4.1%, since they consider that the results of the IMAE as of March are in line with said projection.
However, the official warned that, if the crisis continues, it would not only affect inflation, but also economic growthalthough he indicated that this is not the base scenario, but rather a risk scenario.
According to current analyses, for the rest of 2026, in the base scenario, it is anticipated that economic activity would continue to grow until reaching the aforementioned 4.1%, provided that the crisis is resolved soon, González added.
“If the crisis were to prolong, the impact on economic growth could be 0.2 percentage points, which would indicate that instead of growing 4.1% we would grow 3.9%”explained the president of Banguat.
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“If the crisis lasted beyond the end of the first half of this year, we could see an impact on economic growth, but as I mentioned, not so strong,” González added.
How is foreign trade going?
The amount exported In the first quarter of 2026 it was US$4,229 million, a growth of US$209.1 million, equivalent to 5.2%, compared to the same period last year.
Per month, behavior has been variable. In January 2026, US$1,274.7 million were exported, which represented a growth of 6.4% compared to the same month in 2025. In February it was US$1,377.2 million; in this case, The interannual variation was 8%, and the accumulated variation for the first two months was 7.3%.
In March, although the amount was greater than that of February, reaching US$1,577.1 million, compared to March 2025 it only grew 1.9%, and the accumulated figure for the first quarter lost dynamism, standing at 5.2%.
In this regard, Banguat does not attribute this loss of dynamism in March to the conflict in the Middle East. Regarding the factors that influenced, González Ricci explained that exports are not the channel of transmission of the crisis, but in this case imports are, due to the increase in the payment of fuel imports.
A drop in exports would be anticipated due to the crisis only if it affects the economic growth of the main trading partners. and they reduce the demand for Guatemalan exports, but “it is something that, for the moment, we believe would not have a significant impact,” added the president of Banguat.
The central bank attributes the slowdown in the year-on-year growth of exports observed in March, in particular, to two factors.
The first is the normalization of international prices of some agricultural export products, which last year recorded high prices, remained stable in February and began to decrease in March.
The second factor is the comparison base effect, since in March 2025 exports were very dynamic and grew 10.9%. This data corresponds to the accumulated growth of the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period of 2024, while, in interannual terms, March grew 20.4%, according to Banguat statistics.
For the rest of the year, the central bank forecasts a 6% growth in exports.
Products
Among the products with the highest export amounts in the first quarter are coffee, with US$522.3 million and a growth of 22.7%; clothing items, with US$385.1 million (8.9% more); sugar, with US$278.4 million (down 16.7%); bananas, with US$267.5 million (8.8% more); edible fats and oils, with US$222.7 million (77.8% growth); and cardamom, with US$177.1 million (31.4% more). Pharmaceutical products also stand out, with an increase of 22.8%.
However, several products report declines in the first quarter. In addition to sugar, there are legumes and vegetables, with a drop of -25% (US$20.4 million less); textile materials, -14.7%; machines for electronic uses, -13.9% (US$12.9 million less); and beverages, alcoholic liquids and vinegars, -11.3% (US$14.0 million less).
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What exporters observe
Bismark Pineda, Competitiveness Manager at Agexport, explained that 2026 is a year in which there is simultaneous growth in exports and pressure derived from the increase in prices of important inputs due to the conflict in the Middle East. However, they consider it necessary to point out three points:
- He states that, although growth was recorded in the first three months of the year, it has slowed down. In addition to this trend reflected in the accumulated growth, it states that this deceleration is more clearly evident when the interannual growth month by month is analyzed, since in January 2026 it was 6.4%; in February, 8%; and in March, 1.9%. He adds that the latter grew at a much lower rate than in the previous two months and represents the third lowest value in the years 2024, 2025 and 2026.
- The other point is that, although the figures remain positive in March, according to the analysis, the dynamism is impacted by the conflict. “The estimates made on the possible effects derived from the conflict refer to impacts on the growth rate. With a descriptive analysis it is impossible to affirm that the slowdown is exclusively the effect of this conflict,” he indicated, since Other factors also influence such as the payment of 10% tariff on exports to the United States for vegetables, fruits, aquaculture, fishing and some manufactures, as well as high maritime freight rates. “All these increases have affected the growth rate of exports. We will have to see in April if this slowdown continues,” said Pineda.
- The third refers to the fact that not all products are growing. The executive explained that they carried out an individual analysis of the products in March. This highlights that, in terms of amounts, those that grew the most were edible fats and oils, pharmaceutical products, bananas, aluminum, and paper and cardboard manufactures, among others. He added that, however, there were very important products that decreased in March, such as sugar; machines and mechanical apparatus for electrotechnical uses; textile materials (fabrics or fabrics); coffee; legumes and vegetables; and beverages, alcoholic liquids and vinegars, among others.
Meanwhile, Claudia de Del Águila, Director of Advocacy of the Export Environment at Agexport, pointed out that these challenges show the urgency of promoting a Competitiveness Framework Agenda that reduces costs and makes the country more competitive in issues of road, port, energy infrastructure and digital transformation.
Scenarios
In April, Agexport analyzed the possible impact of the conflict in the Middle East in three scenarios. In this case, the effect of US tariffs on some products for which 10% of that tax is maintained is already included, such as legumes and vegetables that include some minivegetables, among others.
The entity predicted at the beginning of 2026 that exports would grow 3% during the year. But after the conflict in the Middle East, they analyzed these scenarios:
- In the first, short-term scenario, the conflict is expected to last two months (March and April); the impact would be considered slight. In that case, export growth would register a possible contraction of -0.5% compared to the 3% expected before the conflict. That is, growth at the end of the year would be 2.5%.
- The second scenario is medium-term, with a duration of the conflict of four months (until the end of June). In this case, the estimated contraction would be -2%, as a moderate impact. Therefore, based on the initial growth projection, at the end of the year it would grow only 1%.
- The third scenario contemplates a long-term conflict, which lasts until December. The impact would be severe, with a contraction of -7.1%. In this case, with respect to the initial projection, the behavior of exports at the end of the year would be negative and would reflect a drop of -4.1%.
Imports
The total amount of imports made stood at US$8,819.0 million, higher by US$383.4 million (4.5%) than that registered as of March 2025 (US$8,435.6 million). The increase in imports It was mainly influenced by the positive variation observed in capital goods for industry, telecommunications and construction with US$89.9 million (6.8%) and construction materials with US$69.7 million (27.1%).