The world economy will grow 2.5% in 2026, two tenths less than expected in January, according to the latest UN outlook report, which attributes the decline to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
In an update of its economic forecasts published this Tuesday, the organization foresees that global growth will be 2.5% in 2026, two tenths less than estimated in January.
By 2027, the UN anticipates a slight recovery to 2.8%, in a context in which “the solid labor market, consumer demand and investment linked to artificial intelligence in some economies will offer some support, although insufficient to reverse the deterioration of the global outlook.”
According to the report, the main impact of the crisis is concentrated in the energy sector, with supply restrictions, increased oil prices and higher transportation and insurance costs, which is transferred to supply chains and increases production costs around the world.
The UN also warns that the war interrupted the disinflation trend that began in 2023 and that, in advanced economies, inflation would rise from 2.6% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, while in developing countries the rebound will be more pronounced, from 4.2% to 5.2%, due to the increase in the cost of energy, transportation and imports.
One of the most sensitive risks is concentrated in food, according to the UN, due to disruptions in the supply of fertilizers, which could reduce harvests and put upward pressure on agricultural prices.
The organization also points out that central banks face a “dilemma” between raising interest rates to contain inflation or maintaining them so as not to further slow down growth.
In financial markets, the report highlights that, although the initial impact has so far been “limited”, the increase in energy prices raised inflation expectations and put upward pressure on debt yields.
As stated in a statement by the UN Undersecretary General for Economic and Social Affairs, Li Junhua, the crisis in the Middle East “has intensified tensions in developing economies” by increasing borrowing costs and the risk of debt vulnerabilities.
The report does not offer data broken down by country on this occasion, but it does highlight that the Middle East will register the largest drop in growth, while the United States will maintain relative resilience, Europe will suffer greater energy exposure and Asia will show a more solid performance, with “China and India still expanding, although at a slower pace.”
In Africa and Latin America, the impact is “mixed”, with energy exporters benefiting from high prices and importing countries subject to greater fiscal pressures.
The UN concludes that the crisis threatens to “reverse development gains,” and underlines the need for greater multilateral cooperation to “keep trade open, reinforce concessional financing, and support the most vulnerable countries.”