The analysis of the University of Reading, in England, based on 10 thousand simulations completes of the 48-team tournament, places Argentina as the team with the greatest probability of lifting the trophy, although it underlines the parity with France and Spain.
Economist James Reade, a professor at that British university, led the study. The model estimates the offensive and defensive strength of each team based on all international matches played since January 2023, adjusts according to the number of matches played by each team – which varies between 36 and 100 – and incorporates home field advantage in matches not played at neutral venues.
In addition, it simulates each match using expected goals, applies the rules of FIFA tiebreaker and runs through the group stage and all the knockout rounds, including overtime and penalty shootouts.
“Argentina appears in first place, but what is most striking about this simulation is the balance that exists between the main candidates. France and Spain are practically indistinguishable, and England is not far behind,” Reade said.
According to the ranking prepared by the study, the order is as follows: Argentina, France, Spain, Brazil, England, Portugal, Colombia, Netherlands, Germany and Uruguay.
Among the host countries, Mexico is ranked 16th; The United States, in 19th, and Canada, in 24th, reflecting moderate expectations for the organizers of the first World Cup shared by three nations.
This panorama coincides with the original publication of the University of Reading, released June 8, 2026, which emphasizes the absence of a clearly dominant selection, unlike previous cycles.
The academic model contrasts with other projections that have favored Spain, which highlights the complexity of anticipating the outcome of an expanded and highly competitive tournament.
The 2026 World Cup will start on June 11 with the opening match between Mexico and South Africa at the Mexico City Stadium, formerly the Azteca Stadium. Argentina, current world champion, will debut on June 16 against Algeria in Group J, also made up of Austria and Jordan. The final will be played on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
Although the Concacaf teams are not among the main favorites according to the study, six teams from the confederation will participate in the tournament: the hosts Canada (24), the United States (19) and Mexico (16), as well as Panama (35), Haiti (47) and Curacao (48).
The new format of the competition offers them greater opportunities to advance beyond the group stage. The authors of the study recognize that these statistical models provide an objective reference, but they warn that soccer always leaves room for the unforeseeable on the field.