Guatemala faces a rebound in covid-19 cases amid the lack of vaccines in the public network and doubts about the real extent of infections. Epidemiologist José Ortiz, administrator of the SARS-CoV-2 Observatory, warns that official figures could reflect under-reporting and that limited epidemiological surveillance makes it difficult to detect outbreaks and new variants of the virus.
The alert arose after the San Juan de Dios General Hospital reported an accelerated increase in cases among patients and health workers. On June 16, it registered 66 active infections, but by June 19 the figure had risen to 138, more than double in just three days.
Given the situation, hospital authorities declared an internal epidemiological alert, reinforced biosafety measures, ordered the mandatory use of KN95 masks and restricted visits to some services to avoid new infections.
The cases are mainly concentrated in the areas of Hemato-oncology, Nephrology and Internal Medicine, where patients remain with conditions that make them especially vulnerable to respiratory complications.
The increase in infections coincides with the absence of vaccines in the national health network. The Ministry of Public Health and Social Assistance confirmed to Prensa Libre and Noticiero Guatevisión that it currently does not have doses against covid-19 and that it anticipates the introduction of new vaccines during the third quarter of 2026.
The ministry reported, through official letter BPVR/PDM/0164, that the new doses would be part of the planning of the National Immunization Program, although it did not specify a date for their arrival.
Moderate but persistent risk
Ortiz explained that the global risk of covid-19 is currently considered moderate due to the immunity acquired through vaccination and previous infections, as well as improvements in the clinical management of the disease.
However, he warned that the virus continues to circulate and maintains the capacity to cause serious illnesses, especially in older people, immunocompromised patients and those suffering from chronic diseases.
“The overall risk of Covid-19 is considered moderate, but the virus continues to circulate and can cause severe illness, hospitalization or death in vulnerable people,” he said.
He added that subvariants derived from omicron continue to appear with the ability to partially evade the immunity developed by the population.
In addition, he recalled that a portion of patients continue to have long Covid, a condition characterized by persistent symptoms such as fatigue, respiratory distress and cognitive alterations for months after infection.
Doubts about official figures
Another element that worries specialists are the differences observed between official data.
While the national covid-19 dashboard reports 354 accumulated cases during 2026 and only 12 active cases as of June 14, the Minister of Health, Joaquín Barnoya, indicated on June 17 that between January and June around 450 infections had been recorded.
For Ortiz, this difference could reflect a problem of under-recording.
“Definitely yes. Epidemiological surveillance is weak for all diseases and, in the case of respiratory diseases, laboratory surveillance and the health system are also weak, which prevents raising the alarm and taking preventive measures to contain outbreaks,” he stated.
According to the epidemiologist, the experience accumulated during the pandemic shows that surveillance systems detected only one in every 18 real cases.
Based on this relationship, it is considered that the true number of infections could be considerably higher than that officially reported.
“Estimates suggest that cases could exceed 8,000, many of them asymptomatic or with mild symptoms that never enter the surveillance system,” he explained.
Epidemiological surveillance remains mandatory
Ortiz also rejected the idea that Covid-19 has stopped requiring specific monitoring due to the end of the international health emergency.
In its opinion, the country maintains obligations derived from the International Health Regulations that require continuing epidemiological surveillance of the virus due to its capacity for mutation.
“The Ministry of Health cannot stop carrying out this surveillance. There is an international and health responsibility because the virus may present new mutations in the future,” he indicated.
He added that influenza remains under permanent surveillance in all countries and that Covid-19 should maintain similar monitoring.
Lack of information on deaths
Uncertainty also reaches mortality records.
Official data count 20,323 deaths from covid-19 between 2020 and 2024. That last year closed with 51 reported deaths.
However, since 2025 the Ministry of Health stopped specifically publishing deaths associated with the disease, so there is currently no updated public record that allows us to know how many people have died from covid-19 during the last year and a half.
For Ortiz, this absence of information limits the ability to evaluate risk.
“It definitely makes it difficult to know the real magnitude of the disease, both for health personnel and for the population. Not having information on hospitalizations or deaths increases uncertainty and makes decision-making difficult,” he said.
Possible outbreaks in different regions
Although he rules out that the country faces a wave of comparable magnitude to those registered during the pandemic, Ortiz considers possible the appearance of regional outbreaks whose real dimension could go unnoticed due to current surveillance limitations.
“Possibly we are observing smaller outbreaks in different parts of the country. The problem is not having sufficient information for timely containment or to detect more virulent variants,” he indicated.
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