Ukraine thought he had reached an agreement to immediately suspend fighting in the Black Sea. Russia said that economic sanctions would first have to lift. And the United States did not approach the period of time, limiting himself to repeating the broad demand of President Donald Trump that the killing cease.
The contradictory statements issued this week after the high to fire negotiations in Saudi Arabia were the last sign of a chaotic process in which, analysts and experts said, the Kremlin seems to be gaining time and advantage.
The Trump government has proposed to achieve a series of limited agreements high to the fire, arguing that these measures will pave the way for a broader truce and, finally, a peace agreement that ends the conflict. But, until now, these incremental agreements have greatly been a way that Russia obtains concessions from Ukraine and the goodwill of a White House anxious to be seen as the peacemaker.
On Tuesday, Moscow said he would accept the Negro Sea truce only if the sanctions imposed on his state agricultural bank, Rosselkhozbank, and other restrictions were raised. If Washington accepts these conditions and presses the European allies to do the same, the proposed agreement on the Black Sea would benefit Moscow more than kyiv, experts said.
The negotiations on the Black Sea followed another limited agreement negotiated by Washington: the suspension for 30 days of the attacks of Russia and Ukraine against energy objectives. This measure also benefits Moscow, due to the great damage that Ukrainian attacks have inflicted on oil and gas facilities throughout Russia, and did not include any clear application mechanism. Both parties soon accused themselves of continuing those attacks.
And earlier this month, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in fact rejected a proposal to the general fire of 30 days negotiated by Washington and kyiv. Putin established conditions, including the freezing of the recruitment of Ukrainian personnel, the military training and the importation of weapons, which would have caused kyiv to remain in a particularly vulnerable situation in case the fighting is resumed.
“It seems clear that the Russians are giving the matter long, and that is very good,” said Daniel Fried, a former American high diplomat and a member of the Atlantic Council of Washington, who has negotiated with the Russians in the past. “The Russians are lengthening it and demand many conditions to place us in a complex scenario.”
On Tuesday, Trump recognized Russian tactics without criticizing her. He said he believes that Moscow wants to see the end of the war, “but it could be that they are giving long.”
Then he recalled that he had adopted that approach in commercial negotiations in the past, when he did not want to sign a contract, but wanted to “continue in the game.”
For Russia, staying in conversations has meant raising a series of demands, however unlikely the fulfillment of some of them is. Russia framed the proposal on the Black Sea as a way to relive a 2022 agreement backed by the UN that gave him some control over commercial maritime transport through the sea.
That treatment allowed Ukraine to export its grain through an agreed sea corridor, but also allowed Russia to inspect all commercial ships to ensure that they did not transport weapons. Experts claim that the Russian government exploded that provision to paralyze Ukrainian maritime exports.
After the failure of the agreement in 2023, Ukraine managed to expel the Russian Navy from the West of the Black Sea to ensure its own maritime corridor. The operation was so successful that maritime exports of grain returned to levels close to the prewar, above the levels reached during the time of the agreement backed by the UN.
In this context, kyiv has no interest in accessing Moscow’s demands, according to experts. Fried said that for an agreement on the Black Sea to be considered balanced, it would have to include a clear benefit for kyiv, such as the commitment of the Russians to end the attacks against the South Port of Odesa or against all Ukrainian agricultural export facilities.
The White House did not explicitly refer to that commitment in their statements on Tuesday, which only alluded to the elimination of “use of force” in the Black Sea.
The conditions set forth by the Kremlin on Tuesday also introduced the possibility that the United States lifted the sanctions as a condition prior to Russian action, something that the leaders of the European Union are firmly opposed. The president of France, Emmanuel Macron, asked him on Wednesday about the Negro Sea negotiations and said that Trump’s concept of “peace through force” should not “begin with the elimination of sanctions before having received or verified anything.”
Fried said he did not see any substantive concession from Russian to deserve that decision.
“The Russians have managed to include this on the agenda, which means that the lifting of the sanctions is part of the initial negotiation process,” said Fried. “Why are we interested in doing it? What is the reciprocal measure that we are going to obtain from the Russians?”
Trump has threatened Russia with consequences if he does not seek peace, but so far his government has not fulfilled it. Instead, Putin’s statements have accepted and repeated about his desire to put an end to the conflict and has talked about the possibilities of a renewed was of cooperation with Russia.
The president of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelenski, said Tuesday that Moscow’s conditions on the Black Sea Agreement were one more evidence that Kremlin was looking for more concessions while cheating the United States about its true intentions.
Putin has given few signs of backing on his goal of subjecting Ukraine as a satellite nation under the influence of Russia. He has said in repeated opportunities that the Russian forces are on the front line on the battlefield and that a high on the fire would only benefit kyiv. However, you want to continue the rapid approach of Trump’s government to Moscow, pointing out joint economic projects that Russia and the United States could carry out.
The conditions that Moscow imposed on the agreement on the Black Sea have little chances of fulfilling soon. They included the demand to re -connect the Russian State Bank of Agriculture to the International Payment System known as Swift. That would require the cooperation of European countries that have been excluded from conversations.
Alexander Kolyand, a researcher at the European Political Analysis Center, said the elimination of sanctions to the bank would be a significant benefit for Moscow.
“Without a doubt they want a large state bank outside the sanctions, because at the time you have a bank financially sanitized, you can do what you want,” he said. “They can compensate for transactions; they can move money between countries; they can pay imports in dollars, which is always cheaper; and can receive dollars for their exports.”
Even if Moscow, Washington and kyiv resolve the differences in their statements on the agreement of the Black Sea, the high on the fire discussed would only consecrate the status quo, said Andrey Sizov, director of Sovecon, a company of analysis of agricultural markets.
Sizov said that Ukraine has been exporting grain successfully through the Black Sea since the late 2023, and Russia has been exporting both oil and grain, although the restrictions have increased the activity for Moscow. Consider current conversations as a formalization of the existing agreement.
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“It’s not a step forward,” he said. “In my opinion, it shows that the advances towards a total truce, towards a high total fire, are quite limited, if there are.”