The tax collection forecast is handled in an average scenario of Q119 thousand 762 million by 2026, without even knowing the impact of US policies on the economy.
The Superintendence of Tax Administration (SAT) foresees a collection of Q119 thousand 762 million by 2026, which will be the average scenario and will be used to structure the project of income and expenditure budget of that year. This will mean an increase of Q10 thousand 460 million, that is, 9.6%.
The amount would be higher than the Q109 thousand 302 million planned for 2025 between the central administrator and the central government, when maintaining the goals, which serve to finance the public budget in operation and public investment.
The figure is qualified as “moderate” and “reasonable”, since it is still unknown what the economic impact of tariff implementation and commercial uncertainty established by the United States will be.
The Q119 thousand 762 million is the amount that the SAT presented on May 23 in the session of the Technical Public Finance Commission (CTFP) and that will be used to structure the 2026 spending program, based on the information collected by other institutions on the evolution of several indicators, especially the forecast of the gross domestic product (GDP), which was reviewed down. The tax burden would reach 11.8% in relation to GDP.
The CTFP is composed of representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), SAT, Ministry of Finance (MINFIN) and the Ministry of Planning and Programming of the Presidency (Segeplán), and in that session it was confirmed that the collection scenario will be Q109 thousand 302.6 million for the Government and Q108 thousand 737 million for the tax collection.
From January to April, the collection was Q38 thousand 747 million, which means an increase of 8.9% compared to the same period of 2024, when it reached Q35 thousand 574 million, and shows a slowdown.
Parameters
Asked about the basis of the collection for the following year, the head of the SAT, Werner Ovalle, declared that the estimate of the projected tax collection for 2026 is based on a joint analysis with the minfin, which provides for a voluntary collection and at the time of Q112 thousand 565.8 million, according to the macroeconomic scenario presented by the Banguat to the CTFP.
“The estimation of the projected tax collection for 2026 is based on a joint analysis with the minfin, which provides for a voluntary collection and at the time of Q112 thousand 565.8 million”
Werner Ovalle, Chief of SAT
He clarified that goals are also included for administrative measures for Q2 1,742 million and additional income from strategic measures to reduce the non -payment of the main taxes administered by the SAT, which would add Q4 thousand 455 million.
He mentioned that within the estimated total for 2026, Q601.1 million corresponding to tax revenues from institutions other than the SAT are included.
The Ovalle era
work the actions that make up the measures to be developed for the reduction of non -compliance (evasion) of income taxes (ISR) and the added value (VAT), Ovalle advanced that fundamental strategies will be implemented, such as the promotion of voluntary compliance through the comprehensive risk management, and the identification of structural causes of the breach to reduce tax and customs evasion.
He added that, in a complementary way, it will seek to facilitate and simplify compliance with tax obligations through accessible digital platforms, in addition to promoting a culture of voluntary compliance through continuing education and personalized assistance to taxpayers.
Scenario management
The CTFP document indicates that three scenarios were established based on macroeconomic models and the evolution of different indicators.
For example, on the low scenario, the tax and central government collection would reach Q118 thousand 645.8 million; in the middle, Q119 thousand 762.8 million, with which the estimate was based; and at high, Q120 thousand 892.8 million.
For the average scenario, foreign trade taxes are estimated at Q33 thousand 180 million and internal taxes in Q78 thousand 784.7 million. For VAT Imports Q28 thousand 140 million (0.1%) is expected; for the ISR, Q33 thousand 14 million (4.1%); and domestic VAT, Q25 thousand 757 million (9.7%).
These three taxes, together, would reach Q86 thousand 911 million and represent 72.5% of the collection forecast by 2026.
“Moderate” and “reasonable” scenarios
Érick Coyoy Echeverría, analyst of the Association of Research and Social Studies (thus), and Jorge Lavarda, of the National Economic Research Center (one hundred), described the estimates as “moderate” and “reasonable” by the data presented by the SAT before the CTFP for the preparation of the 2026 budget project.
“It seems a moderate scenario, considering the estimate that is for this year of Q109 billion, which represents an increase of Q10 billion for next year, and is a growth that is below the nominal GDP. It is a moderate scenario, without greater surprise, which seems possible, as long as economic clashes are not produced due to the migratory theme and tariffs,” said Coyoy Echeverría.
“It looks like a moderate scenario, considering the estimate for this year of Q109 billion, which is an increase of Q10 billion for next year, and it is a growth that is below the nominal GDP”
Érick Coyoy Echeverría, an analyst like this
Lavreda said that, in the initial estimates of one hundred on tax collection, the data presented is reasonable and is a “attainable” goal under the current conditions, although it will depend on macroeconomic scenarios. He recalled that it is necessary to clarify how the methodological note used to reach the amount and explanation of the evolution of each tax was.
“It is reasonable because of the way the variables are behaving and how the collection is affecting. It is within those ranges,” added the one hundred researcher.
Substimations?
Coyoy Echeverría explained that in other years there has been talk of underestimations in the collection, but this has to do with the fact that the budget has not been approved, as happened last year, when a budget extension had to be approved to update the income figures.
Now there is an approved budget, so a “large” substimacy would not be expected. The approved for this year in collection (Q109 thousand 302 million) is consistent with the uncertain scenario that is lived in the global economy, and the real impact of tariff measures and decisions on migrants and remittances by the United States is still unknown.
“It is wise to work with moderate scenarios, and although there is a speech of great optimism, the projection reflects an expectation of moderation,” he emphasized.
The one hundred researcher reiterated that it is necessary that the current Minfin authorities publish the report of the medium -term tax framework (MFMP), which has not been presented since last year and that to date it has not been announced. This document, he clarified, will allow to determine if the amount of collection is reasonable, but, with respect to the fiscal government policy, how does it compare with the previous estimate? “We do not know if it falls short or not with respect to the medium -term fiscal framework, and it is a recommendation that we make about how much it can be financed,” Lavreda concluded.