Gasoline prices, one of President Donald Trump’s favorite indicatorssoared, stoking economic anxiety just as Republicans hoped to focus on tax breaks and refunds to Americans. Analysts say prices could remain elevated for much of the year, even if the war ends soon. “Consumer confidence falls to its lowest level on record,” an email from the Democratic National Committee announced on Friday. If Republicans lose one or both chambers of Congress in November, they could point to this period as a turning point in which an already difficult midterm election year became even more difficult.
The consequences of the war threaten to weaken the economic proposal of the Republican Party for months, and Trump is struggling to control the conflict, alarming politicians of both parties with his recent social media threat to annihilate “an entire civilization” in Iran. The president has suggested the war could end soon, and Republicans have portrayed it as a temporary interruption. But as the conflict enters its seventh week — and the United States is still trying to reopen a key sea route for oil — the fallout could be difficult to reverse quickly.
“Republicans are deeply concerned about how a protracted war could extend into the midterm elections,” said Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett. “The more prices go up, the worse the polls get… and that could turn safe constituencies into swing constituencies.” Other Republicans said they were not yet alarmed, hoping that the war and its repercussions fade of the public consciousness by the time voters go to the polls. The Trump administration is attempting to negotiate with Iran, and the president’s approval rating has declined slightly since the start of the conflict, although only by one to two percentage points, based on the average of national polls.
Trump’s approval ratings have declined throughout his second term and have averaged around 37% in recent weeks, according to polls compiled by Washington Posta figure close to the lowest level of any of his presidencies and the lowest level of his immediate predecessor, President Joe Biden. The uncertainty surrounding the war adds to a number of red flags for Republicans. Historically, the ruling party often loses seats in midterm elections, and many in the Republican party are pessimistic about their chances of maintaining control of the narrowly divided House of Representatives.
Democrats have a much more difficult path to take back the Senate, where the Republican Party controls 53 of the 100 seats, but strategists from both parties do not rule it out. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers stated that Trump will not allow “the Iranian terrorist regime” to possess a nuclear weapon and that he remains committed to reducing costs. “With the ceasefire now in effect and a long-term peace plan in development, oil and gas prices will continue to fall toward the multi-year lows American drivers enjoyed before these short-term disruptions,” Rogers said in a statement last week.
oil prices, which had surpassed $100 a barrel, fell sharply after Trump announced a ceasefire last week, then rose again as tensions persisted and Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route. When asked in Fox News On whether he thought the price of gas would drop before the midterm elections, Trump commented that it “could stay the same or maybe go up a little bit.” On Monday morning, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil, the world reference for oil prices, had risen 8%, reaching around US$103, and the average price of gasoline in the United States remained at US$4.12, unchanged from the previous day.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration suggested last week that energy prices could take months to return to normal even if the war ends soon, and predicted that if the conflict ends before May, oil supplies should “return to near pre-conflict levels by the end of 2026.”
Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer —D-N.Y.—emphasized the prospect of prolonged economic problems during a news conference last week, predicting months of high gasoline prices and saying that “global oil markets will be unstable for years.” Republicans are eager to find a way out.
“Gas prices have to go back to average in the next 45 days, or I think voters will punish Republicans at the polls,” said one major GOP donor, who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity to speak candidly. A Republican strategist working on the midterm elections said Republicans expect the situation to be more delicate now. “This is expected to be the lowest point we can reach, and we have room to get worse,” said the strategist, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.
Jonathan Bridges, Republican strategist in North Carolina, a key state in the elections, reiterated that there is still time for prices to fall before November. “This summer, people are going to make travel plans, and if gasoline remains at $4, it will hurt many consumers,” he said. “But a lot of things can happen.” The Republican Party retains some advantages heading into the midterm elections, including a huge amount of campaign funds that surpasses that of the Democrats. But Democrats say their reasons for optimism are growing. On Tuesday, he recorded his best result to date in a special election for the House of Representatives.
Republican Clay Fuller won the race to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former House seat in a traditionally Republican Georgia district, but his margin of victory of about 12 points was much smaller than Trump’s 37-point victory in 2024 or Greene’s 29-point victory that same year.
Democrats also celebrated an unusually strong victory last week in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. The liberal candidate won with 60% of the vote, a surprising margin in a key state where elections are usually decided by one or two points, although the Democrats’ large spending advantage in this race could explain it.
If we get to the point where the Senate changes its majority, the seeds for that are being sown right now.
Liberal candidates won with about 55% of the vote in the last three Wisconsin Supreme Court elections. “Reaching 55% in the last election is a huge accomplishment,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt. “60 percent is a truly extraordinary number.” The Cook Political Report, an independent election analyst, recently revised its assessments of several races to favor Democrats, citing “a national environment increasingly unfavorable for Republicans.” In Georgia and North Carolina, key states in the electoral contest, the Cook Political Report modified its forecast for the Senate on Monday, going from “undecided” to a Democratic trend. In Ohio, a traditionally Republican state, a Senate election that was previously considered favorable to Republicans became undecided.
As Cook Political Report reported last week, five House races also tilted left in their rankings, while their assessment of the Iowa gubernatorial race moved from “Slightly Republican” to “Undecided.” Trump’s low popularity “makes it difficult for Republicans to win the independent vote and mobilize their own base,” said Dave Wasserman, an analyst at Cook Political Report. “It puts the Senate in play and means Democrats are clear favorites in the House.”
Kyle Kondik, an analyst for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election website and newsletter, said the fallout from the war and Trump’s approval ratings put the Republican Party at risk. “If we get to the point where the Senate changes its majority, the seeds for that are being sown right now,” Kondik said.