The economy of Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 2.3% in 2026, which improves by one tenth the previous projection of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January, although it is one tenth less than in 2025.
Thus, according to the IMF outlook report released this Tuesday, the region’s economy will advance less this year than in 2025, when it grew by 2.4%, only one tenth more than in 2026, despite the high global uncertainty unleashed as a result of the war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran, which will cause other large regions of the world to suffer a slowdown.
Looking ahead to 2027, the organization maintains that the region will grow 2.7%, as it had calculated in January, although, compared to its forecast from last October, it is one tenth more.
Growth engines in Central America
For Central America, it foresees an advance of 3.7% in 2026, the same as in 2025, and 4% in 2027, driven by domestic consumption and remittances; and for the Caribbean, 5.7% in 2026 and 8.6% in 2027, compared to growth of 6.2% in 2025, with economies that benefit from the recovery of tourism, but also exposed to external phenomena.
The region as a whole continues to be conditioned by external factors such as the rise in raw materials prices, the tightening of financial conditions and the slowdown in global demand, although with differentiated impacts between countries.
In this sense, the IMF explains that energy-importing economies are the most vulnerable to these shocks, while raw material exporters can partially benefit.
The IMF highlights that the current international environment has encouraged several countries in the region to accelerate integration agreements, such as the one recently reached between Mercosur and the European Union, and emphasizes that these pacts can strengthen trade ties and diversify exports.
Brazil slows down and Mexico, on the contrary
Among the main economies in the region, the IMF predicts that Brazil will slow down in 2026, with growth of 1.9%, compared to 2.3% in 2025, and rebound to 2% in 2027, initially benefiting from its status as a net energy exporter, although it will subsequently be weighed down by lower global demand, the rise in the cost of inputs such as fertilizers and more restrictive financial conditions.
Mexico, for its part, will grow 1.6% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, after having registered 0.6% in 2025, in an environment marked by fiscal consolidation, a restrictive monetary policy and trade tensions, mainly with the US, which limit investment and activity.
Argentina, which grew 4.4% in 2025, will moderate its progress to 3.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, although it will maintain one of the most solid performances among the large economies in the region, driven by a process of macroeconomic stabilization and reforms that, according to the IMF, improve confidence.
Colombia will grow 2.3% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, after having advanced 2.6% in 2025, in line with a pattern of moderate expansion conditioned by the external environment.
Chile will register growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, after advancing 2.3% in 2025, while Peru will register 2.8% in both years, after having grown 3.4% in 2025. In both cases, the IMF points to contained growth, affected by lower external demand and higher energy prices.
Ecuador will slow down, going from 3.7% in 2025 to 2.5% in 2026 and 2027; while Venezuela will rebound 4% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, compared to 1.5% in 2025.
For Bolivia, a decrease of -3.3% is expected in 2026, after a drop of -1.2% in 2025; Growth in Paraguay will decline to 4.2% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027, after the 6% increase in 2025; and Uruguay will grow 1.8% in 2026 (the same as in 2025) and 2.6% in 2027.