Next Thursday, June 11, the Mexican team will face the team of South Africa in the Mexico City stadium and will officially begin the 2026 World Cup, which will take place in the United States, Mexico and Canada, where, for the first time in history, 48 teams will fight to become world champions.
The 48 selections were distributed in 12 groups of 4 members each, so this will be the largest number of groups in a World Cup and forced the organizers to incorporate the round of the round of 32unlike previous editions, in which after the group stage they disputed round of 16
The two best teams from each group (24 teams) and the eight best third parties They will advance to the round of 32, so that 16 countries will be eliminated in the group stage. In addition, the eliminatory crosses will have 495 possible combinations, given that everything will depend on the groups from which three teams qualify.
Although soccer is an unpredictable sport, statistics and data often offer clues about possible outcomes. Given the circumstances, Free press analyzed with artificial intelligence the probabilities of each country finishing in each of the positions in its group, based on its performance current and in factors external to the game.
Group stage of the 2026 World Cup
Group A:
An analysis based on artificial intelligence predicts that, in the context of the Group Aprojections suggest that Mexico will be favorite to win the group, although not decisively. For its part, South Korea It will probably be Tricolor’s main rival and will have a very similar probability of finishing in the top positions.
| Selection | First place | Second place | Third place | Fourth place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 41% | 30% | 19% | 10% |
| South Korea | 31% | 32% | 23% | 14% |
| Czech Republic | 19% | 24% | 31% | 26% |
| South Africa | 9% | 14% | 27% | 50% |
Group B:
Taking as reference the recent competitive level, international rankings and the effect of partial locality of Canada (Toronto and Vancouver), the Canadian team will have a home field advantage. However, Swiss They will start as the most consistent team on paper, since they arrive as one of the most solid teams.
| Selection | First place | Second place | Third place | Fourth place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss | 38% | 30% | 21% | 11% |
| Canada | 34% | 31% | 22% | 13% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 18% | 24% | 31% | 27% |
| Taste | 10% | 15% | 26% | 49% |
Group C:
This will be one of the most unequal of the tournament, given that Brazil will start as favorite, while Morocco will arrive as a selection dangerous after consolidating itself among the best in the world in recent years. They will appear behind Scotland and Haiti, who will seek to take advantage of any stumbling block of its biggest rivals.
| Selection | First place | Second place | Third place | Fourth place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 67% | 21% | 9% | 3% |
| Morocco | 22% | 46% | 24% | 8% |
| Scotland | 9% | 24% | 42% | 25% |
| Haiti | 2% | 9% | 25% | 64% |
Group D:
This will be one of the most balanced of the tournament. The US will have the advantage of playing its matches in the west coast of the United States, but Türkiye, Paraguay and Australia are teams capable of competing in matches even. Therefore, the hostess will start as a favorite thanks to a squad that usually performs well as local.
| Selection | First place | Second place | Third place | Fourth place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 36% | 29% | 22% | 13% |
| Türkiye | 29% | 30% | 25% | 16% |
| Paraguay | 22% | 25% | 29% | 24% |
| Australia | 13% | 16% | 24% | 47% |
Group E:
This group would have a clear favorite, but with an intense dispute for second place. Germany would leave with a significant advantage, while Ecuador and Ivory Coast They would star in a fight for classification. Curacao would be the least likely team on paper, although with the ability to complicate their rivals.
| Selection | First place | Second place | Third place | Fourth place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 58% | 25% | 12% | 5% |
| Ecuador | 20% | 35% | 28% | 17% |
| Ivory Coast | 18% | 30% | 31% | 21% |
| Curacao | 4% | 10% | 29% | 57% |
Group F:
This group will have a clear favorite, but it will be more competitive than it seems at first glance. Netherlands will start as the strongest selection, while Japan and Sweden will star in one of the most interesting disputes for second place. Tunisia will have fewer options, although it is a traditionally difficult team to beat.
| Selection | First place | Second place | Third place | Fourth place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 49% | 28% | 16% | 7% |
| Japan | 26% | 33% | 25% | 16% |
| Sweden | 18% | 27% | 31% | 24% |
| Tunisia | 7% | 12% | 28% | 53% |
Group G:
This will be an interesting group because, although Belgium will start as favorite, the dispute for second place will be open between Egypt and Iran. For its part, New Zealand will start as the team with the least possibilities on paper, although it could compete thanks to its defensive organization and consistency shown in playoffs.
| Selection | First place | Second place | Third place | Fourth place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 52% | 27% | 14% | 7% |
| Iran | 21% | 31% | 28% | 20% |
| Egypt | 20% | 30% | 29% | 21% |
| New Zealand | 7% | 12% | 29% | 52% |
Group H:
This will be one of the most attractive groups in the initial phase. Spain will arrive as a favorite, but Uruguay will have enough arguments to dispute the leadership. They will appear behind Saudi Arabia and Cape Verdetwo teams capable of generating surprises and making any of the first two, who have more experience, uncomfortable.
| Selection | First place | Second place | Third place | Fourth place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 46% | 31% | 16% | 7% |
| Uruguay | 34% | 33% | 22% | 11% |
| Saudi Arabia | 13% | 22% | 33% | 32% |
| Cape Verde | 7% | 14% | 29% | 50% |
Group I:
This group will have a clear favorite in Francebut the dispute for second place will be one of the most interesting of the World Cup. Senegal and Norway will arrive with similar levels, while Iraq He will try to take advantage of any oversight to get into the fight, because he has enough offensive talent to compete.
| Selection | First place | Second place | Third place | Fourth place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 63% | 23% | 10% | 4% |
| Senegal | 18% | 34% | 30% | 18% |
| Norway | 16% | 31% | 31% | 22% |
| Iraq | 3% | 12% | 29% | 56% |
Group J:
This group will have a fairly defined structure. Argentina She will start as one of the favorites of the tournament and will have a considerable advantage over her rivals. The dispute for second place will be mainly between Austria and Algeriawhile Jordan will try to take advantage of any opportunity to surprise the other teams.
| Selection | First place | Second place | Third place | Fourth place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 66% | 22% | 9% | 3% |
| Austria | 17% | 35% | 29% | 19% |
| Algeria | 15% | 31% | 32% | 22% |
| Jordan | 2% | 12% | 30% | 56% |
Group K:
This group will be one of the most competitive in the group stage. Portugal and Colombia will arrive as favorites to advance, but the difference between the two will not be wide. will appear behind Uzbekistanwhich will have real options to surprise, while the Congo will try to take advantage of his physical strength and capacity athletic to compete.
| Selection | First place | Second place | Third place | Fourth place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 43% | 30% | 18% | 9% |
| Colombia | 34% | 31% | 22% | 13% |
| Uzbekistan | 15% | 23% | 33% | 29% |
| Republic of the Congo | 8% | 16% | 27% | 49% |
Group L:
This group will combine a clear favorite with one of the most interesting disputes for second place. England will start as a candidate for leadership, while Croatia and Ghana They will compete to accompany her. For its part, Panama will arrive as the selection with less possibilities, although it has recent experience in World Cups.
| Selection | First place | Second place | Third place | Fourth place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 57% | 25% | 12% | 6% |
| Croatia | 23% | 34% | 26% | 17% |
| Ghana | 15% | 27% | 31% | 27% |
| Panama | 5% | 14% | 31% | 50% |
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— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) April 1, 2026